The US presidential election campaign was effectively launched this week when President Clinton gave his State of the Union address, which was replied to on behalf of the Republican congressional majority by that party's leading candidate, Mr Robert Dole. Mr Clinton has skilfully refashioned his message to take advantage of a shift in public opinion and the political agenda over the last three years. He is determined to exploit his incumbency to best advantage and, aside from the serious problem of the controversy surrounding his wife Hillary's involvement in the Whitewater financial affair, he is undoubtedly in a good position to do so.
There is a surprising convergence between the two parties on many issues. Writing in the New York Times, its correspondent R.W. Apple Jr., says Mr Clinton is trying to position himself during the partial dismantling of the welfare state as liberal Republicans did when it was being built up.
Just as they used to promise to run new government programmes more efficiently than spendthrift Democrats, so President Clinton is now saying he will cut back on big government, but with more compassion than Republican radicalism would allow. There is considerable evidence that Mr Clinton has been successful in delivering this message, particularly through the budget crisis of the last couple of months. It now looks to be concluding on terms that will suit him.
The contrast was highlighted by Mr Dole's probably ill judged decision to reply personally to Mr.Clinton. Most commentators have concluded that his age, the harshness and adversarialism of his message and his apparent lack of compassion have told against him in the all important anvil of image on which the American public's political perceptions are forged. Given that what they said was actually remarkably similar, we are confronted with a paradox identified by the Republican House speaker, Mr Newt Gingrich, who says that Mr Clinton would, if elected for a second term, "talk in the centre and govern on the left, and hope the country never picks up the difference".
Mr Clinton has much going for him at this stage of the campaign. The economy is buoyant, however unevenly distributed the fruits of growth have been. US foreign policy is now much more coherent and effective and Mr Clinton has several successes to claim as his own. Assuming he can weather the Whitewater affair credibly, he is the clear front runner in the presidential race.