The successful testing of a "kill vehicle" which destroyed a dummy missile in space over the Pacific has been a major publicity coup for President Bush and supporters of his controversial missile defence system. Opponents had pointed to previous failures as one of many reasons why work on the extremely expensive programme should not continue. That argument, while now diminished in value, still carries weight but is now less likely to make a public impact. In the latest test the dummy missile presented a solitary target. In a genuine attack each incoming missile would be equipped with multiple warheads and multiple decoys. The missile defence programme is, therefore, at an early stage of its development.
Of more immediate concern are the political results of the test. Russia and China have been vociferously opposed to the US programme because they regard the 1972 Anti Ballistic Missile treaty (ABM), with its ban on such programmes, as being of vital importance. If ABM were removed, they argue, a fragile web of international arms control pacts would begin to unravel. The ultimate result would be a new arms race and the militarisation of space. Many of these views are shared by America's western allies within NATO. Russia still has the technological know-how but is badly strapped for cash. China has the financial wherewithal but is less technologically advanced than Russia in the area of ballistic missiles.
In this respect the American rocket test will concentrate the minds of Presidents Vladimir Putin and Jiang Zemin when they meet in Moscow today. A combined response from Moscow and Beijing could threaten a major nuclear arms build-up.