On December 5th last year, just before the Dáil rose for Christmas, we took some time here to look at how the various parties had performed in a poll of polls that had summarised all published polls since the local and European election held the previous May.
With the summer recess approaching, it is worth revisiting the poll of polls to see how the parties have performed in the meantime. Since December 5th no fewer than 17 published polls have been conducted by the four main polling organisations: Red C, Millward Brown/Lansdowne, Behaviour & Attitudes and Ipsos MRBI. Three of those polls were published in late December and the final three were published just last weekend.
Averaging out its performance in the 17 polls, Fine Gael is on 25 per cent. This is just a small improvement on how it performed up to December 5th, when it averaged 24 per cent.
Small improvement The rise is explained by the improvement in the party’
s poll rating in the last three months. For example, Fine Gael polled 29 per cent in one poll last weekend, whereas in December it was at 22 per cent in the same agency’s poll. Averaging overall, however, the improvement is very small.
If Fine Gael got 25 per cent in a general election then it would get between 42 and 48 seats. In my view it will improve further between now and election day. Even if it doesn't it will be by far the largest party and Enda Kenny will be very much in the driving seat of government formation.
The situation for the Labour Party is not good, however. In the last half of 2014 it averaged just over 7 per cent in the polls. In the 17 polls since mid-December it has averaged 7.5 per cent. If Labour got that vote in an election then, even allowing for incumbency and strong transfers from Fine Gael, it would win about seven seats.
Fianna Fáil’s average poll rating since mid-December is 19 per cent. This is exactly the same as it was for the six months before that.
This would give the party about 30 to 35 seats in the next Dáil. Again, however, its performance in recent months has been a little better than in was earlier in the year. There are also indications, not least from the local elections, that Fianna Fáil’s vote is being understated in the polls, perhaps by something in the order of 2 or 3 per cent.
Sinn Féin in the last seven months has averaged 21 per cent. The party is therefore stronger in polling than Fianna Fáil, but it may be that if it obtained a slightly higher vote than Fianna Fáil in a general election it would get about the same number of seats.
In our poll of polls last December Sinn Féin averaged 22.5 per cent. There has been no the collapse in Sinn Féin support, contrary to what some media organisations like to claim. There has, however, been a becalming in its support, albeit at a record high level.
Independents and others The fourth bloc in polling is best described as “Independents and o
thers". This includes independents from different points on the political spectrum along with microparties such as the Greens, the Anti Austerity Alliance and, more recently, Renua. Independents and others have, since mid-December, polled at 27 per cent on average, compared with their 26 per cent average last December.
That would give them about 40 to 45 Dáil seats. Some suggest this group is losing a lot of support. Looking back seven months, however, suggests their vote share is down only slightly.
Overall, the most remarkable features of this poll of polls is the stability it reflects in political preferences over the last seven months.
This type of polling data is no doubt operating on the Taoiseach’s mind as he decides when to call the election. There has been some panic in political circles of late that Kenny might be tempted to do so after the budget next October.
Feel-good factor For an incumbent seeking to benefit from a feelgood factor, that makes no sense. The economic recovery is strengthening. The uncertainty arising from the situation in Greece may be a cause for some concern but, against that, Ireland is likely to continue to benefit from the fact that the euro is low against both the dollar and sterling;
from the lower price of oil; and from the impact of quantitative easing.
Next January and February, workers will see an improvement in their incomes from whatever tax relief there is in the budget; and public sector workers will see further benefits from the Lansdowne Road agreement.
No sane politician would voluntarily call an election for the dreary days of November when those tangible benefits of further recovery will be available in the spring. Early March still seems the most likely election date.