The opinion poll conducted nearest to voting day proved remarkably accurate, writes Damian Loscher
A couple of weeks ago on The Late Late Show, the Irish Timescolumnist John Waters predicted the pollsters would be upended. He sensed a volatility that had not been a feature of previous elections. Voters were unsure about change.
From a polling perspective, the first clue that voters were in two minds about a change of government came in the Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll conducted in October 2006, when the controversy surrounding Bertie Ahern's personal finances seemed to boost support for Fianna Fáil to 39 per cent, up by a staggering eight percentage points.
Movements from poll to poll of one or two points, up or down, are to be expected. Eight-point shifts are exceptional. Only the existence of a substantial and highly volatile group of voters could explain such a dramatic swing. All the warning signs were there.
In many ways, the 2007 general election campaign kicked off in January with Fianna Fáil launching its National Development Plan and Pat Rabbitte refusing to be drawn on whether or not Labour would go into government with Fianna Fáil. But despite the best efforts of the various political parties to dictate the media agenda, concerns over the health of the economy and the state of our public services dominated the headlines. Slowly the desire for change resurfaced: by April, Fianna Fáil had dropped six points (from October 2006) to 34 per cent while the alternative government of Fine Gael and Labour were up four points to 41 per cent. The momentum was with Enda Kenny. If only it could be maintained.
The first in the official series of Irish Times/TNS mrbi election 2007 polls, conducted in early May, held good news for the so-called alliance for change. Fine Gael and Labour together attracted 41 per cent of first-preference votes, compared with 36 per cent for Fianna Fáil. With the PDs on just 2 per cent, the current Government did not look like being returned.
Then came the leaders' debate, a seminal moment in the campaign.
There can be no doubt that Bertie Ahern won the debate, by a margin of almost three to one according to the Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll conducted immediately following the event. Perhaps more critical to the outcome of this election was how Ahern won that debate. Remember, voters felt nervous, so the objective was to win their confidence. On the night, Ahern came across as the more competent, the more informed, the more controlled. Kenny scored points with his composure and his enthusiasm, but did not succeed in convincing voters that he had all the answers.
It could be argued that the alternative government parties underestimated how discerning and discriminating voters are. When you ask voters why satisfactory public services are not being delivered, the answer is not a lack of resources. Instead, bureaucracy and vested interests are cited as the main barriers to delivery. Yet the focus of the campaign was on what would be delivered, not how. Addressing the question of how was always likely to put some noses out of joint, but the failure to grasp this nettle did not give floating voters the reassurance they needed.
The final Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll showed a post-debate surge in support for Fianna Fáil, up five points to 41 per cent, opening a significant gap on Fine Gael and Labour with 27 per cent and 10 per cent of first-preference votes respectively. At the time, these results were described variously as "rogue" and "an aberration" although they ultimately proved to be a remarkably accurate reflection of voter preferences. The truth was Fianna Fáil and Ahern had managed to convince the undecideds that the risk of an alternative government was not worth the reward.
May 24th was a great day for Fianna Fáil, which emerged with 41.6 per cent support. It was also a good day for Fine Gael which, on 27.3 per cent, managed to add five points to its 2002 performance. For the smaller parties, the result was far less satisfying. With 10.1 per cent of first preferences, Labour will be disappointed, while the PDs will take time to reflect on their 2.7 per cent showing. Similarly, the Greens (on 4.7 per cent) and Sinn Féin (6.9 per cent) will regret that the potential indicated by earlier polls was not realised.
The consensus is that the two larger parties squeezed out the smaller ones. Certainly the public was presented with a choice, not a continuum. But this may be too simplistic an analysis. It can be no coincidence that the smaller parties were also more radical with their economic policies. Michael McDowell's "left, hard left and leftovers" soundbite had, potentially, more impact than Ahern's debate success in that it reminded voters that every choice has consequences.
The alternative government will be disappointed the momentum was not maintained. Was it the economy, stupid? For decades researchers have cultivated techniques to uncover the real motivations behind party choice, because simply asking voters to name the issues that are most important to them will not reveal the full picture. In particular, the importance of economic success and personal financial wellbeing are often understated on the doorstep. If we give more weight to actions than words, it was the economy, stupid.
Over the coming weeks and months, the ashes of the 2007 election will be raked over. While politicians will not admit it publicly, opinion polls are the most important source of data with which to validate theories and from which to generate hypotheses. The 2007 series of Irish Times/TNS mrbi polls will prove a valuable resource in this regard. Our understanding of the motivations of the electorate will be greatly enhanced by the volatility in party support as measured from one poll to the next as significant changes cannot be written off as mere statistical variance.
Opinion polls are intended to provide a measure of the public mood at the time of polling. They are informative. They can be insightful. What they are not meant to be is predictive, although it is difficult to avoid the expectation that polls conducted close to election day will be accurate. If this expectation exists, the election result should have come as no surprise to anyone.
• Damian Loscheris managing director of TNS mrbi which conducts opinion polls on behalf of The Irish Times