THE 200,000-plus members of Siptu, the State's largest trade union, have commenced voting on the proposed national pay deal. It is a decision that will not be made easily. It involves a pay increase of 6 per cent over a 21-month period which, even allowing for falling inflation, may not compensate Siptu members for the increase in the cost of living in the intervening period.
The union's national executive decided unanimously to recommend acceptance. President Jack O'Connor has urged members not to forgo the pay increase and the accompanying possibility of enhancing employment rights through the provisions of Towards 2016. Mr O'Connor is aware that the controversy surrounding the Budget will have instilled a degree of militancy among his members that will not be conducive to securing a positive vote.
However, the union takes some satisfaction from the changes conceded by the Government on medical cards for the over 70s and exemptions on the income levy. It also reminds its members that rejection of the pay deal will not derail the Budget. Mandate, which largely represents low-paid workers in the retail and hospitality sectors, has also recommended acceptance.
Rejection of the deal would leave trade unions with the difficult task of negotiating a pay increase on an individual basis with every company in the land. In the current economic and business climate, it is unlikely that the outcome of that process would match what is on offer in the national pay deal.
The latest quarterly report from Fás, in so far as it sets a backdrop to these deliberations, makes some gloomy observations. It predicts that unemployment will reach 5.7 per cent by the end of this year and could rise to more than eight per cent in 2009. This is far higher than the Government is forecasting. With job vacancies declining sharply and a fall-off in new apprenticeship positions, Fás predicts that the downturn could persist until 2010. It also expects net emigration of 27,000 next year.
The trade unions can be expected to maintain pressure on the Government for more changes to the Budget before its provisions are enacted in the Finance Bill. In doing so they must recognise the need to reduce public spending given the difficulties facing the exchequer. But they would be justified in supporting the low paid and in seeking the reversal of cuts in education which unfairly target the most disadvantaged.