It will indeed be "unforgivable", as the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, said last evening, if the marathon negotiations on Northern Ireland, entering their second late night-sitting at this time, should collapse into nothingness. It will be a "gross tragedy", President Clinton said. The Prime Minister, Mr Blair, displaying mixed sentiments of resolution and exasperation, spoke of "seismic" shifts which have taken place. With Sinn Fein's commitment to a timetable for decommissioning and with the unionists' declared willingness to share power, parties are no longer divided by issues of principle, he said. What remains at issue is sequencing, the order and timing in which things should be done.
There is still insufficient knowledge of what has happened over the past three days to allow a reliable reconstruction of events. In particular, the report of General John de Chastelain, with the answers to his questionnaire, is still not in the public domain. But it is clear that at a relatively early stage Sinn Fein moved away significantly from its "no-connection-with-the-firm-next-door" stance in regard to the IRA's arsenal. It accepted that it had a responsibility in regard to the armed wing of the republican movement and that a timetable had to be agreed for decommissioning. For all that these might appear to be inescapable realities for the political counterparts of the IRA, the initiative of Mr Adams and his colleagues in moving forward deserves to be acknowledged, as it has been by other participants in the talks.
The tragedy may be that what Mr David Trimble and his unionists now balk at might have been sufficient to trigger the establishment of the executive not so long ago. Mr Trimble could possibly have sold a formula of words, without an insistence on actual decommissioning in the aftermath of his Olso acceptance speech. But against a background of repeated insistence by the IRA that it would never decommission, his critics within the Ulster Unionist party toughened their stance, reducing his room to manoeuvre. Thus, although Sinn Fein has moved significantly and undeniably, it appeared to a late hour last night that whatever his own instincts, Mr Trimble's assembly party cannot be persuaded to respond.
Mr Dermot Nesbitt, surely among the most moderate and reasonable of the Ulster Unionists, has insisted throughout a succession of interviews over the past 48 hours that Sinn Fein's proposals do not amount to Mr Gerry Adams's earlier offer to have both sides "jump together". If decommissioning and entry into government were to occur simultaneously, he has said, then a deal should be possible. Certainly, if Sinn Fein's position is that it wants into government first, and that a start to decommissioning would follow, this hardly qualifies for the description of "jumping together" - notwithstanding the party's forward movement.
Mr Blair and Mr Ahern have shown extraordinary resolution and stamina in pursuing this process to the last possibility of a successful conclusion. The Prime Minister has not only missed the opening of Scotland's new parliament but seems determined to remain in the negotiations until every possible spark of hope of a resolution at this time is extinguished. It may be that as the hours of the night and morning pass by, or in resumed discussions tomorrow, they can bridge the remaining gap between the two sides. It would take just the smallest additional measure of courage and will. It may be, as Mr Blair has said, that regrettably, it is not to be found. If not, the price of failure will be incalculable.