The depth of concern over the impact of migrant workers on Irish jobs appears to be misplaced, writes Carl O'Brien, Social Affairs Correspondent
The alarm bells grew louder and louder with each passing day. Floods of non-nationals were arriving into the country. Siren voices warned that the State couldn't cope with the numbers. The economy, the social welfare system and our future prosperity were at risk.
Sound familiar? That was 10 years ago at the height of hysteria over the so-called refugee crisis when 13,000 people annually were seeking asylum here.
Much of the reaction was irrational and over-the-top, often based on anecdotal evidence or ill-informed speculation. The wider feeling of unease, however, was understandable for a peripheral country faced with unprecedented change.
A decade later, the sound of alarm bells is again growing louder as a debate on whether to place greater control over the number of migrant workers heats up.
Once again it is understandable that so many people feel anxious over the impact of migrant labour on Irish jobs and wages, as reflected in Monday's Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll. However, the basis for widespread concern appears to be only loosely tethered to the reality on the ground.
A key question in the debate is whether there is significant evidence of job displacement, or lower-paid workers from eastern Europe taking jobs from Irish people? Employment figures show that since our employment market was opened to workers from accession states in May 2004, our unemployment rate has actually fallen from 5 per cent to 4 per cent.
In the lower-paid manufacturing sector, where some of the displacement is alleged to have occurred, the Irish Labour Market Review 2005 states that 2 per cent of manufacturing firms had production constrained due to difficulties in filling skilled and unskilled jobs.
If there has been significant displacement of Irish workers by immigrants in some sectors, employment figures suggest they must have been re-employed elsewhere.
Central Statistics Office figures released late last year show the labour force has been growing at an astonishing rate, which means there are new job opportunities for just about every sector of the population.
This includes migrant workers, but also other sections of the population, such as women and older people.
The figures showed that for the year to December last year, 58,000 people were added to the labour force. Around 40,000 of those were migrant workers, while 18,000 were non-migrants. Many of these indigenous workers were older people choosing to go back to work and married women entering or returning to the workforce.
Figures show immigrants are creating jobs that would not be there without them, given that the Irish labour force is almost fully employed.
Another key concern is whether we already have enough migrant workers here. The Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll showed 41 per cent of people felt we should not allow more workers and 29 per cent said numbers should be reduced.
The figure of 166,000 PPS numbers which have been issued to accession country workers is a statistic regularly used in debate, yet this just represents the numbers registered to work here. Figures from the Department of Social and Family Affairs suggest the majority of workers leave after 10 months in employment. Some commentators estimate the real figure is somewhere between 65,000 to 75,000.
Any attempt to restrict the numbers arriving here would go directly against what economists and employers say is vital in fuelling the country's future economic growth. Without the boost to the workforce provided by migrant workers, we would not be able to generate jobs and wealth to such an extraordinary extent. A range of estimates forecast that up to 50,000 migrant workers will be needed each year if growth is to continue along projected lines.
But what happens if the country's economic growth falters? Migration patterns indicate that if the jobs aren't there, migrant workers won't travel. This pattern is evident in the numbers of migrant workers from accession countries who have travelled to Sweden, one of the three EU member states which did not invoke labour market restrictions, since May 2004.
Figures up to June of last year showed that while 128,000 had registered to work in Ireland, just 16,000 were registered in Sweden, whose economic growth was around half that of Ireland's.
While economic figures support the need for more migrant workers, trade unions have presented a convincing argument for more stringent labour inspection and the strict application of labour law for migrant workers in this country, especially in areas such as construction and agri-business.
It is vital for all workers that people are not being paid less than the legal wage, or being persuaded to work in less than acceptable conditions, or even being paid under the counter in the informal economy. This is easily the biggest threat of job displacement and depression of wages for Irish workers.
The Government can learn much from the sudden growth in the number of asylum seekers arriving to Ireland a decade ago. Its lethargy in responding to the issue allowed a major backlog of applicants which we are only now beginning to clear. It will need to be seen to tackle bogus subcontracting, to better resource labour inspectors and to more effectively prosecute those guilty of exploitation.
The Government now faces the major challenge of convincing a sceptical electorate that it is through tackling these issues, rather than stemming the flow of migrant workers, that Irish jobs and wages can be protected.