The management of a Budget by the Minister for Finance is as much about dealing with people's expectations as it is about dealing with figures, writes Mark Hennessy
On both counts, Charlie McCreevy faces a difficult job over the next few months. The economy is troubled, jobs are being lost, and inflation is still too high.
However, the Republic of Ireland's population in 2003 is not the same as it was 20 years ago when emigration was rife and confidence was at its nadir.
Today, we are harder to please. Still thunderstruck that the Tiger has disappeared so quickly, voters are in rebellious mood. Not all of the grumbles are justified.
A young married couple in Lucan, or elsewhere, facing two-hour commutes, a high mortgage, crippling childcare bills has reason to gripe.
So do the homeless, disabled people, some farmers and those losing blue-collar jobs at a time when manufacturing is heading for cheaper locations.
So too do businesses struggling with escalating insurance, while those unfortunate to require some treatments from the health service can justifiably moan as well.
That is a lot of people. Some have been badly hammered. And they will be hammered a lot more before the economy rebounds. But it is not the majority.
Many others could do with simply getting a grip. Those lucky enough to have bought homes five and six years ago - still the majority of householders - are enjoying low tax rates, and the lowest mortgage rates for a generation. Many more grumble bitterly that the country is going to pot as they head home from their second holiday of the year, or fill up the SUV for the weekend away.
Let's cop on, folks.
Inflation has run riot because flusher customers became less sensitive to price changes, because greed took over and because we do not refuse to buy.
Heading into the summer holidays, the Government is warning that the Budget will be the toughest in decades. Ministers traditionally do this sort of thing as August approaches.
Newspapers, struggling for decent copy, can always be relied upon to "float" dire predictions during "the silly season". Some will turn out to be right. Some not.
With luck, the Government will have properly conditioned the populace well before December. The question then, though, is whether McCreevy will bite the bullet.
Tough decisions do need to be taken. Tax revenues could fall €1 billion behind target and could do so again next year unless the international economy finally begins to perk up.
So what will he do? He doesn't want to raise taxes, the foundation of his political reputation.
Neither does he want to raise Capital Gains Taxes and Corporation Tax.
He does not want to amend the SSIAs. Nor does he want to tinker with the National Pension Reserve Fund. That is a lot that he does not want to change.
Money will have to be found for health and education; so, too, will hundreds of millions more for public servants' benchmarking payments.
In the past, governments have taken easy decisions. So far, Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats have displayed plenty of willingness to do the same.
A repeat of last year's stealth taxes will be a problem because of the inflationary impact, even if they try to dress up higher fuel charges as carbon taxes.
However unpopular, extra fuel taxes are justified because of our failure to abide by Kyoto carbon dioxide targets, but they are only justified if the money is put away for the rainy days to come.
McCreevy promised consideration of carbon taxes last year, though Finance and Enterprise, Trade and Employment officials now fear the impact on business.
He could try to delay benchmarking payments as much as possible into next year, while tax bands could stay static - leading to a real cut in net pay.
Despite warnings of curbs, the Government has tried hard over the last week to leaven the mixture. A diet of too much bad news is not a good thing.
Michael Martin appears to have taken up residence in the Government Press Centre, announcing €50m for disabled residential places and €75m for hospital improvements.
In truth, Martin probably could not win. If he had announced the disabled money before, or just after, the Special Olympics he would have been accused of cynical manipulation.
By announcing it later, he got very little bang for his buck. Newspapers that had rightly carried page after page on the crisis facing disabled people buried the news in inside pages.
The Government's news management extends further. The public can expect in coming weeks to be offered a daily menu of changes, reforms, initiatives. Exhausted after the election, the Government closed down last August. By the time it came back, its reputation had been shot to hell. It swears that it will not allow a repeat.
Next week, Michael McDowell will announce his Garda reform plan, Martin Cullen will pronounce on carbon taxes. Look busy, the Taoiseach has ordered.
For years, politicians have dealt with distracted voters. Now, the appetite for political debate is coming back, judging by the Patrick MacGill Summer School in Donegal this week.
Hundreds of people, of a political bent and none, attended the Glenties gathering for impassioned debate on the need for a more civilised society.
The quality of the contributions from the floor showed that some Irish people still want to be citizens, not just consumers. Mark it in your diary for next year. A holiday for the mind in Donegal.