President Yeltsin's declaration that he will not run for a third term is being regarded in Moscow as something of a political kite. And if this was his intention he has, clearly, been successful. Officially, according to Mr Yeltsin's own constitution, the President of Russia can, like his counterpart in the United States, remain in office for two terms only. What Mr Yeltsin's statement has opened, therefore, is a constitutional debate. There are those who argue, and they are currently in the majority, that Mr Yeltsin is now in his second term and when that is finished he is duty-bound to retire.
There is, however, another school of thought which is gaining ground among those close to Mr Yeltsin's entourage. In his first term, they argue, Mr Yeltsin was elected not as head of state of an independent Russia but as president of the constituent Russian republic of the USSR. That period of office, they claim, does not count as far as the constitution is concerned and Mr Yeltsin is therefore entitled to run again.
At 66, Mr Yeltsin is already considerably older than the average Russian male whose life expectancy is a mere 57 years. Should he change his mind and run again, he could still be in the Kremlin in 2004 which would effectively make him president for life. Undoubtedly, there are those who will try very strongly to persuade him to seek another term; their luxurious lifestyle depends upon his remaining in power. As Mr Yeltsin has said, Russia needs a "younger, more energetic" leader, and in the course of the weekend Moscow's Mayor, Mr Yuri Luzhkov, will attempt to demonstrate that he can succeed Mr Yeltsin in the Kremlin.
On the occasion of Moscow's 850th anniversary, Mr Luzhkov is putting on an extravaganza such as has not been seen in any European city for decades. Mock dragons will be slain, swans will swim in a flooded Olympic stadium and a laser-generated image of the Virgin Mary will be beamed into the skies. The proceedings begin today when Mr Luzhkov will be paraded through the streets standing in a giant wine glass. Large sections of the celebratory weekend will be seen as a legitimate excuse for Muscovites to let their hair down after a pretty miserable 850 years of Tsarist and Communist rule.
Mr Luzhkov and his policies, however, demand closer examination. On the positive side he has been an energetic city boss who has brightened up Russia's capital to the extent that it is hardly recognisable from the dull, grey metropolis of five years ago. Negatively, he has emerged as a strong great-Russian nationalist when dealing with non-Russians close to home and as a distinct pan-Slavist in his views on Europe as a whole. He has forcefully evicted non-Russians from his city, has been instrumental in the arrest of the homeless, beggars and ordinary citizens who stray on to the streets without the required documents. It appears evident that the leader Russia deserves, after so many years of trauma, has yet to arrive.