Support for the political parties that signed up to the Belfast Agreement has weakened marginally during the past two weeks of campaigning in the Northern Ireland Assembly elections, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll. But the combined strength of these Yes parties still amounts to 79 per cent of the electorate, compared to an earlier figure of 82 per cent. Support for the Agreement in the recent Northern Ireland referendum amounted to 71 per cent and these latest figures would indicate continuing strong approval for the political settlement overseen at Stormont by the two governments.
The key shifts in voting intentions affect the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), where support has declined from 33 to 27 per cent and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) where support has risen from 13 to 16 per cent. Sinn Fein has gained two points to 10 per cent; the SDLP and the Alliance have both dropped a point, to 26 and 9 per cent respectively. The Progressive Unionist Party (PUP) has gained two points to stand at 3 per cent; the Women's Coalition has put on a point to 2 per cent; the UK Unionist Party remains unchanged at 3 per cent while the Ulster Democratic Party (UDP) shows for the first time at 1 per cent and the Labour Party drops a point to 1 per cent. The field work was conducted last Monday and Tuesday by the Harris Research Centre and there may be a 3 per cent (plus or minus) margin of error in the findings.
Voting intentions have been affected at a number of levels by the campaigns being run by the political parties. This is evident in a more sophisticated approach to proportional representation and the transfer of preferences to other parties. Two weeks ago, before voting pacts, transfers and their implications for the destination of final seats were debated in public, 27 per cent of those questioned indicated they would confine their votes to a single party. By this week, that figure had dropped to 12 per cent while the percentage intending to transfer their votes to other parties rose from 49 to 66 per cent. An even more startling indication of political flexibility was evident in a willingness by 26 per cent of those questioned to transfer their votes to parties they had not previously supported.
The shifts in voting intentions represent, to a large extent, movement within the established Yes and No camps. Losses by the UUP over the past two weeks have been reflected in gains by the PUP, the Women's Coalition and the UDP, but support has also flowed towards the DUP. Within the nationalist community, there was some movement towards Sinn Fein - whose strength has been consistently underestimated by opinion polls - at the expense of the SDLP.
Much of the steam has gone out of the arms decommissioning issue over the past number of weeks as the two governments moved to legislate for the matter. From a position where the decommissioning of paramilitary weapons ranked equally with peace - at 28 per cent - as issues to be addressed by the Northern Ireland Assembly, it has now been relegated in importance. The establishment of peace is now regarded as the key requirement by 45 per cent of those surveyed, with decommissioning coming in at 19 per cent, the release of prisoners at 14 per cent and the reform of the RUC at 7 per cent. With a week remaining until polling day, this concentration by voters on the broad picture, rather than on individual issues, is a very positive development.