Zimbabwe Moves On

President Mugabe has made a number of political moves to coincide with the opening of the new parliament in Harare

President Mugabe has made a number of political moves to coincide with the opening of the new parliament in Harare. He has been forced to face up to radical changes in the country's political landscape following the successes of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in last month's elections. The parliament now contains a large opposition bloc of 57 MDC members rather than the previous handful of deputies opposed to Mr Mugabe's ZANU-PF grouping. But for obvious intimidation in the course of the election and a constitution which allows the president to nominate 30 members of the 150-seat house, the opposition might have gained a majority. Recognising the new balance of forces Mr Mugabe has installed a cabinet of young pro-business technocrats rather than pushing for a more confrontational set of ministers. This may have two effects: firstly the young ministers are likely to be compliant to the wishes of the president and secondly they may be viewed by the opposition as less hostile than a cabinet composed on more traditional lines.

Even the most virulent members of the opposition, while seeing an opportunity to push him to the limits of his flexibility, agree that Mr Mugabe is a formidable political opponent. On this occasion they have seen him move on two fronts. Firstly he has begun to consolidate his own power within ZANU-PF. Possible high-profile rivals have been excluded from the new cabinet. With presidential elections due in 2002 such a manoeuvre is significant. Moreover, his declaration that he will deal with the country's severe economic problems while accelerating the process of seizing white-owned farms will strike a popular note particularly with veterans of the war of independence. The two goals, however, may turn out to be mutually exclusive. Zimbabwe's economy, once a beacon of hope in sub-Saharan Africa, is now in a parlous state, bedeviled by fuel and foreign currency shortages, inflation and record unemployment levels.

By continuing the policy of land seizures Mr Mugabe will consolidate his support amongst veterans. Much of the land farmed by whites was seized from the indigenous population originally. Many of the white farmers imposed a regime of near-tyranny on their black workers. It was to overthrow such a system that the veterans fought their independence war in the first place and the promise of more land will be strongly welcomed in that quarter. The foreign investors so badly needed by Zimbabwe's economy may, however, look on land seizures in a cold economic light. They are likely to view re-appropriation measures as a serious threat to economic stability. In the context of presidential elections in two years' time Mr Mugabe's success, or lack of it, on the economic front will be crucial. It is unclear as yet whether he is working towards his own re-election or engineering a favourable situation for a possible successor. The appointment of Mr Emmerson Mnangagwa, who lost his seat in the election, as Speaker in the new parliament, has been interpreted by many observers as amounting to the nomination of a favoured successor.