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No guarantee voters will be grateful if Government bungs them money in the budget

‘Help with the cost of living’ is what half of all respondents to today’s poll want to see in the budget, more than twice the 24% who opt for increased spending on public services

While inflation levels have abated this year prices have not come down, and many people feel, TDs say, that the increases in their income have not kept pace with the rising costs. Photograph: iStock
While inflation levels have abated this year prices have not come down, and many people feel, TDs say, that the increases in their income have not kept pace with the rising costs. Photograph: iStock
Pat Leahy's picture
Pat Leahy
Fri Sept 20 2024 - 06:00

For months, TDs of all parties have been saying to anyone who will listen that the issue they most encounter on the doorsteps is the cost of living.

Though inflation levels have abated this year, prices have not come down, and many people feel, TDs say, that the increases in their income have not kept pace with the rising costs. Many complain of living with little financial wriggle room by the end of the month.

Luckily, if you’re one of the Government parties, there is something you can do about this. So we can expect another hefty package of one-off (for the third time) giveaways in the budget.

Today’s Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll suggests that is the least people expect. Rarely does a pre-budget poll offer such clarity. “Help with the cost of living” is what half of all respondents to the poll want to see in the budget – more than twice the 24 per cent who opt for increased spending on public services. Reducing tax (16 per cent) and saving the surplus (8 per cent) are hardly at the races; the message from voters is clear – we want some cash in our pockets.

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That cash will be forthcoming after the budget is hardly in doubt – Government Ministers up to and including the party leaders have been energetically promising as much in recent weeks – but will they be assured of the gratitude of the voters afterwards?

[ Irish Times poll: Cost of living tops public concerns for budget ]

[ Strained electorate may sense chance to get issues addressed before they cast their ballots ]

That’s a trickier proposition. What we can say from the experience of the last two giveaway budgets is that while they did not prompt a big spike in support for the Government parties afterwards, nor did we see the opposite. And at a time when many governments – including in the UK and the US – were becoming hugely unpopular because of increases in the cost of living, the Government here was not. That’s probably not unrelated to the big giveaway budgets that helped people meet – if not completely negate – the rising cost of living.

Perhaps it’s best to put it this way: there is no guarantee that voters will be grateful if the Government bungs them money in the budget. But if the Government doesn’t bung them money they will be rather disappointed.

The link between voting intentions and concerns on the cost of living is further underlined when voters were asked about what are the issues that will influence their vote.

By far the largest proportion of respondents – almost a third (32 per cent) – say that the cost of living is the issue that will most influence their vote. On general economic issues, a further 6 per cent cite the economy and 4 per cent tax as the issues most likely to influence their vote. Health is at 16 per cent, house prices are also at 16 per cent and cost of rent is at 8 per cent. Immigration is cited by 12 per cent of respondents. Climate change is at just 4 per cent.

All these numbers will push the Government towards as big a budget giveaway as it can manage. Sure, it will be criticised by economists and the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council as imprudent (and by all of the Opposition as insufficiently generous) but as Government politicians never tire of pointing out, the economists don’t have to get elected.

In any case the poll suggests that the public appetite for long-term prudence is not, for people who value these things, exactly overwhelming. Saving the surplus is very much a minority priority (8 per cent) for the budget. Asked about the Apple tax windfall, the options of saving it for the future (5 per cent) or reducing the national debt (7 per cent) attract similarly thin numbers.

By contrast, half of all respondents (50 per cent) say they want the money spent on “housing and other pressing needs”; a further 36 per cent preferred a mix of all three.

There is a note of pessimism in the final question on today’s instalment of the poll. Asked if they thought people in their 20s and 30s would have better or worse life prospects if they moved overseas, two-thirds of voters said their prospects would be better if they left Ireland. Only 6 per cent said that they would be better off at home. This demonstrates structural failings unlikely to be solved by the application to easy cash in the budget. These things are harder to fix.