Politicians and the media have been banging on about a general election for months. Do we know when we’re voting yet?
Er, not exactly. What we did, finally, learn this week is that Taoiseach Simon Harris will call an election, to take place this year. The Government could have continued right up to March 2025 but he has decided to go to the country within weeks. The precise date is yet to be revealed.
Why is the election happening now?
The Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael/Green Party Coalition announced the final Budget of its term in office earlier this month. Once the legislation gets over the line to bring in the welfare increases and tax measures, the last major business of the current Government is done. There has been speculation about an early general election since at least June – when Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael did better than expected in the local authority and European elections and Sinn Féin did worse.
Simon Harris taking over as Fine Gael leader and his party’s rise in support in opinion polls, and Sinn Féin’s drop, have not lessened the clamour within his party for an early election. Nor has the fact that Budget goodies in the form of double welfare payments such as child benefit will be made in the coming weeks.
Are the Taoiseach’s Coalition partners on board for an early election?
Yes. Both Fianna Fáil and the Green Party are deep into election preparations themselves. Within the last two weeks Tánaiste and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin opened the door to an early election during an interview with The Irish Times Inside Politics podcast. Green leader Roderic O’Gorman later suggested Friday November 29th as a possible election date, prompting annoyance within Fine Gael, given that it is the Taoiseach’s constitutional prerogative to call the election. The three leaders met on Monday and agreed the election will happen this year.
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So why has a date not been announced?
That would see election campaigns – already ramping up – go full throttle. The Coalition does not necessarily want a lengthy campaign. There is still some business the Government has to do, like passing the Finance Bill. This will be accelerated but it could still take one or two weeks from November 5th, when it is due back in the Oireachtas. An election in late November is considered most likely – either the 22nd or the 29th. December 6th – the night RTÉ broadcasts the Late Late Toy Show is – considered less likely.
Any hints from the Taoiseach this week?
Not so much. “I like elections on a Friday,” he told reporters before heading into a Cabinet meeting. He’s going to keep everyone guessing for a little while yet.
