The smoke from ChatGPT’s birthday candles is still lingering but in the year since its launch the new technology has, aptly enough, appeared to generate more heat than light. The fabric of academic teaching remains intact and there are no signs, as yet at least, of widespread job destruction at its hands.
Indeed, the consensus at present is that AI in all its forms will not result in a net loss of jobs.
“Humans have been automating work for at least 200 years, says Ibec head of digital economic policy Erik O’Donovan. “The debate of technology job replacement versus job creation is ongoing. However, the latest research points to a net positive story.”
He points to the recent report entitled AI Skills: A Preliminary Assessment of the Skills Needed for the Deployment, Management and Regulation of Artificial Intelligence, produced by Ireland’s Expert Group on Future Skills Needs, which found that it is not likely to bring about a net loss of jobs but will replace certain tasks within many jobs over time.
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In addition, the World Economic Forum (WEF) expects the impact of most technologies on jobs to be a net positive over the next five years.
“Almost 75 per cent of companies surveyed for the WEF Future of Jobs report in May are expecting to adopt AI,” says O’Donovan. “Some 50 per cent of them expect jobs to be created as a result, while only 25 per cent expect job declines.”
Carlo Salizzo, a partner in Matheson’s technology and innovation group, also expects a positive impact.
“Notwithstanding the speed at which AI has grabbed public and media attention, AI is actually an evolution rather than a revolution,” he contends. “It has been around for nearly 30 years.
“As we’ve seen in that time, jobs will undoubtedly change along with the tools we use to do them. I expect that every industry will see some disruption but the story of employment over the last 30 years has been a positive one and I would expect those trends to continue.”
EY Ireland Data and Analytics partner Paul Pierotti also expects positive impacts.
“While we cannot say for certain yet what the long-term employment impact of AI, we do know that every other technological breakthrough has resulted in many more jobs over time,” he says. “Moreover, here in Ireland we have done very well over the last 20 years investing in innovation and high value jobs.
AI provides further opportunity for Ireland, illustrated by OpenAI recently selecting Dublin as their third global location. There is a huge opportunity for Ireland to be the gateway for AI for the EU and this could create many, many jobs.”
Despite these comforting views, AI undoubtedly has the potential to replace some jobs. And some people will be adversely affected. Those impacts will be limited, according to O’Donovan, and there are steps which can be taken to ameliorate them.
“OECD research on the impact of AI on the workplace shows that, to date, job reorganisation appears more prevalent than job displacement, with automation prompting the reorientation of jobs towards tasks in which humans have a comparative advantage,” he says.
“A broad range of skills is needed to ensure that this is realised in practice. There is a need for both organisations and individuals to prepare by seeking out the necessary education and training. There are several new courses on AI specific skills, including industry led programmes through Skillnet Ireland.”
In this context, O’Donovan says the significant surplus in the National Training Fund (NTF) should be leveraged to underpin a strategic approach to addressing the immediate skills needs of Irish business including digital and AI skills.
Salizzo also emphasises skills. “We cannot predict the future,” he says. “Clearly the systems we have for education and training will need to take into account the new skills required for the workforce of the future. We will always need people. Customers and clients will continue to go to someone they can trust for advice – be that a solicitor, an insurance or financial services adviser or a medical practitioner.”
Attitude is also important, according to Pierotti. “I am from Scotland and have been living here for 20 years,” he points out. “What I cannot help but do is compare the two economies.
“Specifically, Scotland spent much of my youth seeking to protect jobs, particularly in general manufacturing, that ultimately we were always going to lose. During that same time, Ireland focused on education, innovation and a series of iterations of creating higher value jobs. This has led to huge economic success for Ireland and now Scotland and many other countries follow.”
Regulation will be part of the answer but it will be equally important to promote an understanding of AI in the education system and throughout society
— Carlo Salizzo, Matheson LLP
He adds: “We need to have the same approach for AI. Implement the efficiencies to ensure Ireland remains high value and invest in our people so we can benefit from the next wave of jobs. A great example is AI ethics and compliance. Ireland can take a leading role and create many jobs, ensuring the use of AI is appropriate and compliant across the EU.”
However, fears in relation to AI and its capabilities are by no means limited to jobs.
“Trust is an important ingredient in technology adoption,” says O’Donovan. “The EU and national approach must be to intensify trust. The EU is working on new regulation, the proposed AI Act, that aims to ensure that AI systems used in the EU are safe, transparent, ethical, unbiased and under human control.
“Privacy rules are already in place that protect individuals and we should expect the emerging legislation to be based on a human centric and risk-based approach. Importantly, it is always worth remembering technology is a tool. It is the enabler and will only be as good as the data, people, overarching digital strategy and systems underpinning it.”
Greater familiarity with the technology will help, according to Salizzo.
“As with any new technology, there will be risks and potential upsides,” he says. “We need to promote the upsides while also mitigating the risks. Many of these risks – such as disinformation – are not new but AI may simply be a larger-scale challenge.
“Regulation will be part of the answer but it will be equally important to promote an understanding of AI in the education system and throughout society. Media has a potential part to play in this.”