Just thinking back to the last World Cup final is enough to fill any South African with every possible positive emotion. It all went so well from the opening to the final. Indeed, if you remove Max Brito's tragic injury, the floodlight failure, the punch-up against Canada and, oh yes, Louis Luyt's speech at the victory dinner you could almost believe that it was perfect.

Perhaps a predestined reward for South Africa avoiding violent revolution and reforming via the democratic route. It's a nice thought anyway.

Perhaps with the Jumbo flying low over Ellis Park, Nelson Mandela in the Springbok jersey and, of course, the dramatic win over the old enemy in black, it's excusable to forget the skydiver. Almost immediately after the win a lone sky-diver dropped in to the stadium with a banner promoting Wales 1999. At the time it seemed a world away. Now it's about to happen.

I suppose the big question here is what on earth has gone wrong with South African rugby on the field since. Ironically in 1998, a year with lots of political rumblings over a lack of transformation, court proceedings between SARFU and the Government and general bad press for rugby off the field, the Springboks swept all before them.

This year we have the government praising SARFU, Louis Luyt out of rugby and into Parliament (not surprisingly he found the sponsorship for the SA parliamentary rugby team), players of colour coming to the fore . . . and the Springboks in crisis. Losses to England and Wales, humiliation down under and one of the icons, the skipper and ex-Clontarf player Gary Teichmann, dumped via a cell-phone call.

What has gone wrong and what are the chances of things coming right? It's a combination of bad luck, bad management and a lack of confidence. There is a dearth of quality midfield playmakers in South African rugby. The key man today is not the out-half. As a rule he passes good ball and kicks the rest. The decision-maker is at first centre. Nick Mallett, the Springbok coach has been unlucky. Playmakers Dick Muir and Christian Stewart have had career-ending injuries. Big, strong busters like ex-Greystones star Pieter Muller are common in South Africa, but there is a lack of creative ability.

For some reason Hennie Le Roux, who brilliantly guided Gauteng (Transvaal in the old days) to the Currie Cup, has been overlooked. Mallett has suddenly found himself adrift behind the scrum and the days of boot, bollock and bite being enough are over. Ask Ireland. Without a finishing back line you will finish second unless the weather is awful.

Rumour has it that Mallett lost the trust of the senior players and so some, including Teichmann and Andre Joubert, were axed. He also fired technical coach Jake White at, it's reported, the insistence of backs coach Alan Solomons. Mallett is a strange man. He's a lawyer and enjoys great loyalty from the Cape players and great mistrust from the rest. Can he coach a back line? Many would point to South Africa's recent form and say no.

So we've had a season of chopping and changing for some. Yet others, like the mercurial but inconsistent full back Percy Montgomery, seem to be in favour no matter what. Injuries to key half backs Joost van der Westhuizen and Henry Honiball haven't helped, but in World Cup year you look at patterns and not results and the Springboks have looked listless.

Also Bobby Skinstadt, he of the Hollywood looks and mother from Louth, has been injured. Many say he is not going to be a force as a result. Much of Mallett's strategy revolved around him.

ALL is not well and this also applies to the circus surrounding the Springboks. Every second ad on TV has the players making fools of themselves, but earning a fortune at the same time. Fair play to them. We also had training camps with teambuilding exercises, raft-building and life-saving.

You get the feeling that the collective eye is not on the ball. In 1995 Kitch Christie had the team training for rugby and fitness in a spartan and simple way. He realised that South Africa had to win an opening game and then three finals for that's what the quarterfinal, semi-final and final really are. Win four games and you win the world. It's the same this time.

South Africa has a tough start against the Scots at Murrayfield. The South African pack is excellent and so will be their defence. However, if it's a high-scoring game and the Scots can recapture the spirit and adventure of last season, it could be close.

With respect, then it's open season against Spain and Uruguay (let's hope no Max Brito disasters here - or 100-point wins, but that's another debate).

By hook or crook, it's then the three finals and for the Boks it must be a combination of three out of England, France, Australia and New Zealand. Don't get me wrong, South Africa will be very hard to beat and on their day can beat anybody. Ask Australia.

It will help if the conditions are poor and the game is dragged down. I believe, however, that ultimately they will be called on to finish, to run-in chances and to expand their game, and this is where they will fail. I hope I'm wrong.

With a typical lack of balance, many South African fans would regard the views expressed here as evidence of treason. It's not that at all. I would love South Africa to retain the Webb Ellis Trophy, just as I would love Ireland to win it. I just don't think either is very likely. However, and maybe here's the rub, sometimes a metamorphosis occurs in a side for some unknown reason and it could happen this time.

The Springbok is wounded, and a wounded beast is dangerous.

Head on a block then, who will win? The All Blacks are very good but I believe they are weak in midfield. The Australians are a great side, but I feel they may have peaked too soon.

It's great to have Wales back in the frame. Even my battered generation has to concede that the Welsh misfortune had gone beyond a joke. Ireland, Scotland and France can all cause upsets but, God forgive me, I go for an England win.

A mighty pack, talent behind it and an astute coach in my old Lions colleague Clive Woodward, together with a young man born to kick goals in Jonny Wilkinson. It's a long shot alright and the great thing this time round is that nobody can really be sure. I can't wait.