The jockey has never won it, nor has the owner or the trainer, and favourites traditionally have an appalling record; but it is still difficult to ignore the claims of Afarad in today's 14th Ladbroke Hurdle.
J P McManus and Christy Roche would relish a victory in what is always one of the most intriguing handicaps of the year, but for Charlie Swan, Afarad could fill one of the few big race blanks in his outstanding career.
The nine-time champion jockey estimates he has had 12 previous Ladbroke rides, often on market leaders, but has found the first major race of the New Year a constant source of frustration. "It's often a difficult race to ride in because things get so tight, but this year's field is the smallest for some time and that should suit Afarad," an understandably cautious Swan said yesterday.
But it was the forecast for soft ground and poor weather that was causing him more concern.
"Very soft ground would be a worry as he is definitely better on better ground, but he did win on the heavy at Leopardstown the Christmas before last," Swan added.
His hopes were buoyed by Leopardstown manager Matt Mitchell who predicted overnight rain but stressed: "The going should still ride soft."
Less than ideal so, but Afarad does have a course and distance win on the heavy to his credit and he appears to hold excellent claims on the book. Plus the Ladbroke rarely throws up the ideal for any horse.
That especially applies to British-trained challengers. Just two have won in the last 24 years, and the last of those, Master Tribe in 1997, was virtually ignored by punters.
Of the two raiders this time, Nicky Henderson's Geos holds the best claims on a third to Copeland and Roddock at Sandown, but the stats make him hard to fancy.
With Quinze out due to an allergy the field of 14 is the smallest since 1988 and just seven are in the handicap proper. Theatreworld's absence of a recent run rules him out, while Derrymoyle looks to have had his chance in the past in this race. Knife Edge, in contrast, looked to be running a career best behind Istabraq last time until an appalling blunder at the last. His fitness has passed muster since and he has an obvious chance, but that last hurdle wrench is still a worry.
She's Our Mare is a wonderful campaigner with a wonderful turn of foot, but the ground may be going against her and she doesn't look to have Afarad's counter claims on the formbook.
Afarad did look to have the ideal pipe-opener at Naas in November, and on his runs in last season's Triumph, behind Hors La Loi at Aintree and behind Katarino at Punchestown, he has significant weight pulls with the likes of Knife Edge and Golden Rule. Clearly trained for this day, Afarad is taken to score for Swan, Roche and McManus in the hope that the ground doesn't turn desperately heavy. If it does, last year's 25 to 1 winner Archive Footage, now with 17 lb less on his back, could be the each way option.
The McManus colours can also enter the number one spot after the £50,000 Pierse Leopardstown Chase, even if McManus' talented novice is being asked to hump 11-6 over three miles against tough, experienced handicappers.
This will actually just be Up For The Game's third racecourse chase start, and he is up against the likes of the Paddy Power winner Inis Cara, the Durkan scorer Buck Rogers and the former Thyestes winner Bob Treacy.
Nevertheless, Up For The Game looked an unlucky loser when just pipped by Saxophone over the course and distance at Christmas and, ridden more decisively today, he can start to exhibit his full ability.
Feathered Leader is taken to reverse Drinmore Chase form with To Your Honour and Sallie's Girl in the Fitzpatrick Novice Chase, while Magua, a very easy winner over the course and distance at Christmas, is taken to follow up in the Morris Handicap Hurdle.
Kieren Fallon has informed the stipendiary stewards in Hong Kong that he plans to return there this weekend.
The Hong Kong Jockey Club communique also gives an upbeat bulletin concerning the knee operation the jockey had during a Christmas break in Britain.
Fallon has told the authorities that he is fit to resume race riding again after being given the all clear by his doctor.
He returned to Britain after the Hong Kong international meeting on December 12th and subsequently underwent an operation.
The authorities have told Fallon that he will need to inform them of the date he plans to return to action and also to provide a medical clearance document.
