WALES v NEW ZEALAND:NEW ZEALAND today return to the scene of their worst day in the professional era. Thirteen months ago at the Millennium Stadium they lost to France in the World Cup quarter-final.

It was their earliest exit in the tournament's history. With several players bound for Europe and the management team seemingly booked for a ride on the tumbril, they looked to be in meltdown.

It never pays to underestimate the All Blacks' capacity for reinvention. They are the most successful side in the history of international rugby: they suffer wobbles, most of them during World Cups, but other teams go in for slumps and recessions. What other country could lose players as good as Carl Hayman, Luke McAlister, Chris Jack, Aaron Mauger, Doug Howlett, Jerry Collins, Anton Oliver, Byron Kelleher and Nick Evans - all post-World Cup signings for European clubs - and still return to the top of the world rankings less than a year later? Wales may be the grand slam champions but the bookies make New Zealand 1 to 12 favourites to extend their winning run in this fixture to 20 matches this evening.

The decision to retain Graham Henry as head coach after an exhaustive review of the World Cup wasn't popular, but it addressed the country's accursed fixation with the Webb Ellis Cup and suggested a rational assessment of the progress made in the previous four years. "As coaches, we had to take a long breath after the World Cup," said All Blacks attack coach Wayne Smith. "Graham decided to stand again and he had the support of the management team and the players. . .

"We have lost 17 players in the last year, but it has been terrific to see a crop of young players come through, a tribute to our age-grade system in New Zealand as well as the quality of coaching."

Smith has spoken this week to former Waikato colleagues of the Wales head coach, Warren Gatland, about the rush defence he used there and which became a notable feature of Wales's 2007 grand slam. A number of this All Blacks squad played under Gatland at provincial level, including the centre Richard Kahui.

"I have watched Wales play and they are doing pretty much what we did at Waikato and the Chiefs [ in the Super 14] when Warren was around," he said. "We know what to expect: when we have the ball, it will be about picking the right time and moment."

Kahui's words suggest outhalf Daniel Carter is likely to kick more than he runs and passes.

Wales have made sure that New Zealand, who have eight survivors from that quarter-final in their starting line-up, use the same dressingroom they occupied against the French. Wales will need some of their 2005 Lions who have not found form this season - Ryan Jones, Stephen Jones and Tom Shanklin - to make an impact. Wales tend to start slowly and finish strongly, but that will not be good enough today.

It may be 55 years since they last defeated New Zealand, but the All Blacks' desire to exorcise the ghosts of 13 months ago will be overwhelming.

Guardian Service