Even in a country that is more pre-occupied than most with the weather, the skies over the Curragh tonight will be scanned with a greater than usual intensity. The result of the 1999 Budweiser Irish Derby will depend on it.
Already robbed of the presence of the English Derby winner Oath, the sixth year in a row that the Epsom victor hasn't made it to the Curragh, there is a good chance that French Derby winner Montjeu may not run in tomorrow's £775,000 classic.
Sun and wind were yesterday doing what Montjeu's connections precisely don't want - drying the ground. The French colt will not run if the going turns firm and his participation largely depends on whether a forecasted nine millimetres of rain falls this evening and during the night. "Montjeu will travel to Ireland on Saturday afternoon but we are depending on that forecast rain hitting the Curragh," said Montjeu's trainer John Hammond yesterday evening. "If it doesn't there must be a chance that he will be taken out of the race on Sunday morning." Last night the Curragh going was officially good to firm.
The Chantilly-based handler, preparing for just his fourth ever race in Ireland, added: "If the rain doesn't come but they water the course late on Saturday night, we might get away with it but if it doesn't rain and they don't water, we will have to have a serious look at things. The horse is in very good shape and we just hope the forecast is right."
It is not just Hammond and Montjeu's owners Michael Tabor and John Magnier who will be hoping for water. The race had originally been billed as the clash of the Derby winners to find the best three-year-old in Europe. Whatever about the billing, many believe the non-appearance of Montjeu would prevent the expected 28,000 crowd from seeing that champion.
Touted as top class after an impressive seasonal-winning debut over Sendawar, Montjeu was then edged out of the Prix Lupin after not stretching fully out on the fast surface. On easier going in the French Derby however, Montjeu showed real acceleration in beating Nowhere To Exit by an easy four lengths.
The bare form may be negligible but the impression was huge and if given his chance to race, Montjeu is expected to be the best of the four overseas challengers who dominate the betting for Ireland's most important race.
Top of the betting lists this week has been the Epsom Derby third Beat All. This colt is trained by Sir Michael Stoute who has won the Irish Derby three times, including with Shergar, and will be ridden by American Gary Stevens who has never ridden in Ireland before.
Beat All has a length and a half to make up on the Aga Khan's Daliapour from Epsom running but Beat All had an interrupted preparation for that classic and will relish fast ground in this one. In contrast, Daliapour likes conditions wet. Sheikh Mohammed paid out £77,500 to supplement the Royal Ascot winner Mutafaweq, another who will like fast ground, while his jockey Frankie Dettori won the Derby for Godolphin on Balanchine in 1994.
Aidan O'Brien saddles four of the remaining six horses in the race with Michael Kinane choosing the French Derby fifth Tchaikovsky and Oath's rider Kieren Fallon stepping onto Genghis Khan. Both colts are by Sadlers Wells whose produce usually like give in the ground and so they, too, will be hoping for overnight rain.
If it doesn't come, Port Bayou could be best of the home team while Mutafaweq will surely come even more into consideration. But if the rain doesn't come, will what many feel is the best horse in the race even take part?
