RUSSIA COACH Dick Advocaat acknowledged yesterday the race for qualification from the Republic of Ireland’s European Championship group had been thrown wide open by the results in Moscow and Zilina on Tuesday night but says he believes Russia will make it to the finals in Poland and Ukraine next summer.

The 63-year-old, who was arriving back in Amsterdam after his side’s eventful draw with Ireland, admitted to having been surprised by Armenia’s 4-0 victory in Slovakia but suggested the continued involvement of Vardan Minasyan’s side in the hunt for a top-two finish in the group may yet prove a problem for Giovanni Trapattoni, with the two teams due to meet in the campaign’s last round of games.

“Yes, I was very surprised by the result,” he said. “I expected maybe a draw but a win for Armenia is a surprise result and for them to win by such a score is a very big surprise.

“It makes the whole group very open, though; anything can happen now. The next two rounds of games will be very interesting.

“Our game in Slovakia, of course, will have a major influence on how things turn out. We lost to them in Moscow but we are confident the result can be different this time.

“If it is,” he continued, “then we will be in a strong position. Our last game is against Andorra in Moscow and in that game it would be normal for us to win.

“Ireland showed again that they are difficult to beat in Moscow but they also had luck on their side I think.

“Their game against Armenia will be a test for them because Armenia have shown now that they are a good team; I always believed this to be the case but after their win in Slovakia and if they can beat Macedonia next time, I think they will have confidence in Dublin and it might be interesting.

“And Slovakia will hope to beat Russia, of course. If they can then they will have a great deal to play for too. So there is everything at stake for all the teams. But naturally I think that Russia can qualify.”

His team’s failure to beat either Ireland or Slovakia at home has, at the very least, made life a little more difficult for them but then the Russians are hardly alone in that regard with just two of the 10 games played so far between the four contenders for qualification from the group having gone the way of the hosts.

The Russians, nevertheless, remain favourites to take the group’s automatic qualifying spot with a point in Slovakia enough to guarantee them first place as long as they don’t slip up against Andorra at home a few days later.

If Trapattoni’s men can win their last two games they would nick top spot in the event that Russia lose against Slovakia, with six points otherwise leaving Ireland in second place.

Theoretically, that could still be enough to get them through as the best runners up but in reality the three points they would get for beating Armenia would leave them with 15 from their games against other top five sides and that is all but mathematically certain to be a point or two short of what is required to avoid the play-offs.

The play-offs would, however, at least bring a windfall in the form of ticket, commercial and television revenue on top of what the association must be hoping will be their first full house for a football match at the Aviva Stadium when Armenia come to town next month.

That alone would be worth upwards of €100,000 more than they took last Friday for the visit of Slovakia to the cash-strapped organisation, while the value of a play-off could potentially run into millions as it did last time around when broadcaster M6 paid about €5 million to show the Dublin leg of the encounter with France.

This time TV money for any play-off is likely to be much smaller with almost all of the nations from the biggest TV markets having already qualified automatically or looking set to do so (although the French, as it happens, are not yet safe in Group D) and the market depressed.

In the event Trapattoni’s men do navigate their way to the finals, however, the news is better as the prize money for participation has been increased again, with associations now getting a basic €8 million for making it there, plus €1 million and €500,000 for each group win and draw respectively, after which quarter-finalists will get an additional €2 million, semi-finalists €3 million, finalists €4.5 million and the champions €7.5 million.