By lunchtime today the Premiership will know if it still has a fight on its hands. Should Arsenal beat Manchester United at Old Trafford this morning the championship will have opened up in earnest.

At the moment United, seeking to become only the fourth club to complete a league hat-trick and within sight of their fifth title in six seasons, hold a nine-point lead over Arsenal, who have three games in hand. A win for Alex Ferguson's side today and it will be hard to see who can possibly stop them achieving their aim.

Arsene Wenger's team have already defeated Manchester United once this season, and without the suspended Dennis Bergkamp. A late header from David Platt brought them a 3-2 victory at Highbury in November after two goals from Teddy Sheringham had answered Arsenal's early 2-0 lead.

But Arsenal have not won on United's ground since October 1990, when a mass brawl led to FA fines and points deductions, and they have failed to score there on their last five visits.

Arsenal will pin their hopes on two factors: Manchester United's indifferent form, which has seen them drop 14 points in 10 league matches while Wenger's side have not lost in nine, and the distraction of Monaco's visit to Old Trafford on Wednesday in the return leg of a Champions League quarter-final. Add to this Ferguson's injury problems and an Arsenal win becomes something more than a pipe dream.

So far almost everything has gone Manchester United's way. The early loss of Roy Keane, with damaged cruciate ligaments, has been offset by the consistent excellence of his midfield replacement, Nicky Butt. The arrival of Sheringham from Tottenham restored the confidence and prolific scoring ability of Andy Cole. Ryan Giggs has also had his best season so far.

Now suddenly Ferguson has worries over injuries. Giggs is recovering from a pulled hamstring, Gary Pallister's latest backache may or may not have eased in time for today, Butt suffered a calf strain during Wednesday's 1-1 draw at West Ham, and Phil Neville, another hamstring victim, is also doubtful.

Manchester United's manager has to pick this morning's team with the Monaco game partly in mind. Giggs may just make it back by Wednesday, but today United will be looking to Sheringham, Cole and Paul Scholes to preserve the status quo at the top of the table.

United's fitful Premiership form has gone unpunished by Chelsea, Blackburn Rovers and Liverpool, the teams best placed to exploit the downturn. Five weeks ago, when Manchester United were held to 1-1 at home by Bolton Wanderers, any one of these three could have closed the gap to two points. But they all lost and United instead extended their lead by one.

So now it is down to Arsenal to keep the race realistically alive, and with them nothing should ever be ruled out. In 1971, when there were two points for a win, they took the title after being seven adrift of Leeds United at the end of February with two matches in hand. Statistically the present position is comparable.

This morning Arsenal will look primarily to Bergkamp, Marc Overmars and Ray Parlour, as well as Alex Manninger's impressive goalkeeping, to bring them victory. Any other result and Manchester United will be well content.