Irish Champion Stakes Leopardstown, 3.55pmThe build-up to today's Baileys Irish Champion Stakes has had more script changes than Casablanca but despite everything Azamour still looks the one to take top billing for the second year running.

No horse has ever won this great 1-million feature more than once but even against a top-flight field that includes the Epsom Derby winner Motivator, his old rival Grey Swallow and Oratorio, who has been something of a forgotten horse, Azamour's quality still shines out.

As a result, and despite the quality of the opposition, as well as the absence of his usual jockey Michael Kinane, many pundits have viewed this as Azamour's race to win ever since he added another string to his Group One bow with that scintillating King George rout.

But yet again it has been the Irish weather that has proved the spoilsport. Much of the last week has been devoted to Motivator and the prayers of his connections that the ground would change from good to firm. They have got their wish and with a vengeance.

Over 16mms of rain fell on Leopardstown by lunchtime yesterday. A minimum total of 20mms is expected by this morning. That would have the ground at "yielding". The maximum possible total coming from the Met people is 30mms. That would make it "yielding to soft" at the very least.

So instead of Michael Bell and the Royal Ascot Racing Club anxiously looking at the skies we now have John Oxx and the Aga Khan peering upward. Last year Azamour's owner famously watched from a helicopter circling overhead. This time he might even be up there again trying to blow the clouds away.

Azamour's 10-race career to date has demonstrated that good or faster conditions suit him best. Spectacular victories in the King George and here last year prove that. Only once has he run out of the first three and that was when fourth in the Tattersalls Gold Cup in May behind Grey Swallow. Ironically though, that defeat also indicates he may be able to overcome the conditions this afternoon.

There was a slight cut in the ground that day at the Curragh but it wasn't that which made the difference. Instead Michael Kinane is convinced it was sheer bad luck.

"He should have won by 10 minutes but everything else got in my way," Kinane said afterwards. "I said to John Oxx afterwards that whatever beat him would never beat him again." There isn't too much evidence in that statement that the ground made a crucial difference. It's also best to ignore a third at Newmarket last October because the official soft ground that day doesn't even hint at how tacky it really was. Any soft at Leopardstown today will be a different proposition.

Just the mention of soft, however, will be enough to encourage Motivator's supporters but the English champion is taking on a very different calibre of opponent now. His Derby form doesn't read well at all and a mile and a half looks his best trip.

Oratorio in contrast is at his right distance but it took four races to have him right in the Eclipse and his lack of action since could hurt. Alexander Goldrun has officially got almost a stone to find with Azamour and in the conditions it could be that it's Grey Swallow again who is the big threat.

However, in five meetings to date, Azamour has emerged best over Grey Swallow four times and Kinane is convinced it should be a clean sweep. With the aid of Christophe Soumillon, the point can be proven today.

Soumillon also holds big claims on the Coolmore Matron Stakes with the double Celebration Mile winner Chic, especially as the Attraction team were considering their options yesterday owing to the poor weather forecast.

Up against Chic will be Virginia Waters and Saoire, but a value option could be Majestic Desert, who was desperately unlucky behind Caradak in the Desmond Stakes.

Behkiyra is an unbeaten Stakes winner who was being seriously spoken of as a possible Leger prospect earlier in the season. She returns for a first run since July and significantly it comes under topweight in the mile and a half handicap.

Acropolis tries for two in a row in the Listed Kilternan Stakes and soft going should not be a problem, a comment that also applies to the Moyglare fourth Sandie in the Foal Ley Stakes.