Mujahid's flop in Thursday's Craven Stakes has thrown the 2,000 Guineas market wide open, and now we have the bizarre situation where a once-raced maiden, Killer Instinct, heads the ante-post market.
In the circumstances, optimism must be growing at Ballydoyle that a second successive Newmarket colts classic could be within their grasp. Orpen, who pleased Aidan O'Brien in a piece of work yesterday morning, is as low as 7 to 1 for the Guineas, while Saffron Waldon, as low as 16 to 1 despite beating a 50 to 1 shot by just a length in a Curragh maiden last month, goes in tomorrow's Icon 2,000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown.
Saffron Waldon has always had a big reputation since his early two year old days, but he will have to start justifying that with a vengeance if he is to take care of tomorrow's opposition.
They include the National Stakes winner, Mus-If, warming up for the Irish Guineas, who has to concede 7 lb to Saffron Waldon, the unbeaten Granite and John Oxx's Akbar. However, apart from the eclipse of Stravinsky on the first day of the season, O'Brien's classic aspirants have been doing well and continue to please at home.
"Saffron Waldon has been in good form since winning at the Curragh and I'm very happy with him," O'Brien said yesterday. "Orpen worked nicely, but I'm not sure when he will come out. He's in all the races, including the Tetrarch, but it's possible he could go straight for the Guineas."
Despite this race, under all its various guises, not having thrown up a subsequent classic winner since Dara Monarch in 1982, an impressive victory for Saffron Waldon tomorrow would cause moves in the Guineas market. It's worth betting that that will happen.
The Kilkenny 1,000 Guineas Trial has had a similarly unimpressive classic impact since Kooyonga in 1991, but O'Brien is double-handed in his attempt to win it for the first time. Michael Kinane's mount, Crystal Downs, is taken to beat the Cornwallis winner Show Me The Money and stable companion Carambola.
It took Crystal Downs until October at Gowran last year to break her duck, but some of her placed form is excellent. A second in the Prix Marcel Boussac helped earn her an international rating of 108, the same as Show Me The Money who has to concede 5 lb. Crystal Downs also looks a more certain stayer over the seven furlongs and Kinane obviously thinks she has a better chance than the Cork scorer Carambola.
Mark Johnston sends the Newcastle maiden winner Royal Rebel for the Listed Ballysax Stakes, but O'Brien's Grand Prix de St Cloud third, Cupid, the Eyrefield winner Wild Heaven and the runner-up in that race, Port Bayou, guarantee a strong home defence. Preference is for the Weld-trained Port Bayou, who will be race fit after a success at Cork earlier in the month. John Oxx's Group winner Rafayda, the topweight in this, was in season yesterday which can hardly help her chance.
O'Brien and Kinane have had a great start to the season with their juveniles, and the Nureyev colt Fasliyev is fancied for the opener. Desert Sky, the only runner in the race with previous form, was runner-up to O'Brien's Buffalo Berry at Cork. Piranesi, runner-up to the sidelined Coliseum at Cork, should go close in the 10-furlong maiden, while Irene Oakes can strike a blow for the smaller strings courtesy of Provosky in the nine furlong handicap.
