ALL-IRELAND SFC THIRD QUALIFYING ROUND:Monaghan have the physical tools to dismantle the All-Ireland champions; the question is have they the mental ones, writes Tom Humphries

AH THE big dance! You need a bit of confidence to take the floor early and give it your all.

This weekend's last waltz is the sort of event which can define a summer. Monaghan and Kerry by themselves virtually make the case for picking the back-door qualifier match-ups not by means of a draw but by public vote. Even apart from last year's near coup by the Northerners this is the perfectly balanced tie, one that lends itself to endless nuances of anticipation and interpretation.

An All-Ireland champion side who haven't performed well since before the league final trying to kick-start themselves and find a meaningful version of the team they once were.

And Monaghan, the sort of team who don't like to be given the "leeeeetttts get ready to RUUUUMBLE" sort of introduction that gets other Northern teams so pumped. It's a sports psychologist's goldmine.

Monaghan have the football to take Kerry down tomorrow but the game will be decided on the basis of who copes best with the feelings of self-doubt and inadequacy.

Last year against Monaghan and against Dublin the men of Kerry looked like a gang entirely unfamiliar with the worries which rack ordinary mortals. They tap-danced while up on the tightrope. They toyed with their opponents at times when other sides would have been choking on their own desperation.

That was then. This is now. Kerry's football history has had enough periods of empire for them to know that empires, like other good things, always come to an end.

The counties have a memorable history but periods of boom and recession have contrived to keep them apart.

Before last year their previous meeting was back in 1985, a replay, Eoin Liston's dismissal a feature of a close-run game that almost ended Kerry's last three-in-a-row before it even got started.

This year has been a little bit more distracting than usual, and one senses Kerry are a side who have glanced into the abyss a few times. Poor shows against Derry (okay, subtract the sublime first 20 minutes) Clare and Cork have suggested mortality.

And then there's been Declan O'Sullivan's injury, the Gooch's subdued status, l'affaire Galvin and the worry, strange to the Kingdom, as to whether a few new(ish) faces are actually up to the job.

In terms of psychology Kerry though are in a place they have been before. They spend most of the second half of the 2006 season pulling themselves together, administering unto themselves firm kicks in the ass and telling themselves they were up against it.

Sometimes all that stuff works. Sometimes it has worked too often before and the brain doesn't respond any longer.

And Monaghan? Have they the stones to take advantage. That's the question which makes tomorrows game the most intriguing of the season so far. That's why Kerry and Monaghan are headlining this weekend whereas last year they were support-act fodder.

It has been said before but Séamus "Banty" McEnaney often seems like the perfect embodiment of Monaghan football: feisty but cautious, proud but mindful. The county brings a unique mindset to its business on the football field. With a history full of near misses and slightly condescending pats on the back from the big boys, Monaghan have a sense of hunger and a style which stands with any of their Northern neighbours. They just lack the sense of entitlement that goes with it.

This week is perfect for anthropologists. The flags are fluttering in hope rather than triumph in the football heartlands of the county and Monaghan are coping with the fact that despite having a pulse which fades in and out of audibility (this year's league and Ulster championship) their clash with Kerry this weekend is the headline game.

Last year they appeared on the support card against Kerry. We expected they were travelling to Dublin to get their clocks cleaned. Monaghan had their finest hour in many years - neutrals still drifting in were taking second glances at the scoreboard as they sat down.

The main billing this weekend suits them less. Monaghan are a side who enjoy an ambush. They aren't front runners when Banty sits at the back of the bus with the boys watching Father Ted videos; they are a team out on the make and being outsiders suits them.

Tomorrow they bring the county down to Dublin with a sense of expectation. In the league this year and in the Ulster championship that burden of expectation brought on a slight palsy.

So in Monaghan you don't find the same triple-brass confidence you see in the province's other clutch of footballing emissaries: Tyrone, Armagh and Down.

All three, for instance, have had their way with Kerry over the years and have had no problem coming away from Croke Park and relating how enjoyable it all was. Monaghan still await the graduation that is a championship win over the Kingdom.

Banty's words, when parsed, exhibit caution.

"One of these days Monaghan will do it," Banty says. "There's no question in my mind . . . I think all good things come to an end and Kerry's dominance in those games will eventually come to an end . . . Some day it will happen. I would be very hopeful Monaghan will go close to doing it this year . . . Kerry are the draw from hell from our point of view."

Just when liberation from Division Two of the league this year seemed a safe bet they lost their way in the games against Cork and Westmeath and then despite being many people's favourites to win the title they turned in a curiously flat, almost paralysed, performance against Fermanagh in the Ulster. "Just weren't up for it", as Banty says.

Around Monaghan when those issues are raised the defensiveness is buttressed by decent argument. Cork, Westmeath and Fermanagh all went on to good things as the year matured and in retrospect perhaps little shame should be attached to succumbing to them.

Yet Monaghan know they are a team that need to close the deal this weekend. Banty's passionate and high-energy style of management draws its oxygen from the self-belief that comes with each successful ambush.

If Monaghan hit a wall against teams of a certain calibre it is hard to see them regrouping and charging that wall down next year.

The hope for the neutral is that at four o'clock tomorrow Monaghan recall all they have going for them - that they will look at the sheer size of Eoin Lennon and Dick Clerkin in midfield and the absence of Paul Galvin (who is on record speaking admiringly about the stunning physicality he encountered in the middle third against Monaghan last year) and know they can have a platform to work with.

They will know that Pádraig Reidy had his toughest day last year playing against Monaghan and that given the thundering physicality about to break out in the land between the two 40s Kerry can hardly be serious about starting the Gooch at number 11. Kerry's half-forward line hasn't been seen for some time now. If they don't show up tomorrow the champions are in trouble.

All those things should give Monaghan sustenance and hope, but most of all they need to conquer themselves.

It's a game every other county still standing in this year's championship will tune into. It's a game which will define the managerial legacy of either Pat O'Shea or Séamus McEnaney, whichever loses. And it's a game which will shape the immediate future of football in either county.

An empire could crumble. Monaghan could become the standard bearers for the post-puke era of Ulster football.

And the beauty of it is that the winning and losing of it is all in their heads.

"The flags are fluttering in hope rather than triumph in the football heartlands of Monaghan

Quarter-final draw on Sunday

ALL FOUR of this weekend's third-round All-Ireland football qualifiers at Croke Park will have extra-time, if necessary.

With the four quarter-finals down for next weekend, the GAA will be hoping replays won't be required.

The draw for those quarter-final pairings will be made on Sunday evening on TV3, following their live broadcast of the round-three qualifier between Monaghan and Kerry.

The names of provincial champions Armagh, Cork, Dublin and Galway will be drawn against the winners of this weekend's games. However, there is the added attraction that teams who have already played each other in their provincial finals cannot be paired in the quarter-finals.

- Ian O'Riordan