The signals seemingly coming from the Lions management is that recent runs of form will be rewarded, with several selections going down to the wire, writes GERRY THORNLEY

FINALLY, AT 1.30pm today, Ian McGeechan will unveil the 35 or 36 names to tour South Africa with the Lions this summer. Finally, indeed. For months it has been the great guessing game, the ultimate sideshow to the rest of the season’s incredible events, so the moment cannot come too soon.

On the back of a Grand Slam to buttress the defence of the Heineken Cup and Magners League – and retaining both could hardly be better on track – Irish interest in the announcement has probably never been so acute. The record representation of 11 to New Zealand four years ago is liable to be bettered.

Let’s be honest, that figure was somewhat inflated by the overtly numerous 45 players originally named by Clive Woodward in the most grandiose squad of all, which would make a dozen, 13 or even 14, a far more praiseworthy achievement and reflect the current rude health of the game here.

Uppermost among these will be another Irish captain, with Brian O’Driscoll and Paul O’Connell long since pencilled in as the leading candidates for the role. O’Driscoll would arguably be the first Grand Slam-winning captain in a Lions year not to be named to lead the tourists, but there is now alot of evidence – as well as an increasingly wildly-held belief – that O’Connell will be McGeechan’s choice. For starters, O’Connell assumed a strong leadership role with Ireland and captains Munster. McGeechan will want to be seen to be doing things differently from Woodward and similarly he promoted Martin Johnson to captain the Lions to South Africa on their last winning tour, to South Africa a dozen years ago, ahead of Phil de Glanville. The Scot would also probably prefer a big, totemic figure to captain the team from the second row rather than outside centre.

Aside from a more streamlined squad, McGeechan and co will also bear in mind a few other lessons from the mistakes of four years ago, not least picking players in good form and health, and match-hardened, rather than place their trust in reputations and past achievements. The signals seemingly coming from the management is that recent runs of form will be rewarded, with several selections going down to the wire. But while the gap between the Six Nations and the Heineken Cup has probably narrowed further in the last four years, the former still has to be the starting point as the most valid breeding ground for a Test series in South Africa.

Viewed in that light, one would imagine Lee Byrne and Rob Kearney will travel, although it’s also hard to overlook Delon Armitage, not least because he had a good Six Nations, is playing well for London Irish, can play fullback, wing or centre, and is a goalkicker. Kearney’s star has seemingly waned a bit in latter weeks, but that catching, physicality and huge left boot look made for the high veldt.

Some of the wings could also cover fullback, notably Tommy Bowe (who looks a certainty) and Luke Fitzgerald, and presuming O’Driscoll, Riki Flutey and in-form Cardiff pair of Jamie Roberts and Tom Shanklin all travel, that would leave two more places from a plethora of candidates – Keith Earls, Gordon D’Arcy, Ugo Monye, Leigh Halfpenny, Mark Cueto, Josh Lewsey, Tom James, Geordan Murphy and the Evans’ brothers and Chris Paterson.

In his column for the Guardian and on The Rugby Club, Lions’ defensive coach Shaun Edwards forecast some big names are in for a shock whereas some of those “in the reckoning” won’t have made their national teams in the Six Nations, or “caught the eye . . . in last weekend’s Heineken quarter-finals”.

This strengthens the hunch that Earls, long ago identified as a potential bolter, and/or Halfpenny and Monye might go.

It’s been a non-vintage season in a non-vintage era for outhalves, with the candidatures of Jonny Wilkinson, Danny Cipriani and James Hook – as that seemingly fateful Munster-Ospreys’ quarter-final underlined – all going backwards. It would seem risky to only bring the two in-form Test outhalves, Ronan O’Gara and Stephen Jones, given a replacement would then have to be called up in mid-tour if either of them was injured in a 10-match, three-Test tour, but that may well be the case.

Given South Africa’s propensity for big, physical scrumhalves and the need for strong fringe and covering defending, Tomás O’Leary’s burgeoning form makes him a good fit to accompany Mike Phillips, whereas Mike Blair’s unexceptional Six Nations has not done him any favours, and nor has Dwayne Peel’s lack of opportunity at club or national level; though Lions’ manager Gerald Davies will have argued his case passionately. Indeed, were they to go with the option of the quickest service around McGeechan and co could also look to Munster, but Harry Ellis or Danny Care look the likelier bet.

The five props look one of the surer picks, though Marcus Horan must be pushing for inclusion and may, at the very least, be first on standby, while there’s an argument for picking Rory Best as well as Jerry Flannery.

O’Connell and Alun Wyn-Jones look the only nailed-on certainties for the four or five secondrow berths, with Nathan Hines, Donncha O’Callaghan, Simon Shaw and Nick Kennedy the front-runners. The lineout, against the peerless Bakkies Botha-Victor Matfield combo, will be critical to the series and though Shaw’s value has been diminished by the maul’s loss of importance, there seems to be a strong whisper for the well-connected Wasps bulwark across the water.

Along with the Irish backrow, Martyn Williams (whose wondrous link play was the heart of Cardiff’s destruction of Gloucester on Saturday), Tom Croft and the human wrecking ball Joe Worsley (the Lions will need to have one of those in their armoury) look good bets. You’d have to say Denis Leamy and Nick Easter are in better form than Ryan Jones, Andy Powell and James Haskell, though they may be tempted to incorporate Powell’s macho-running.

All of which would leave no room for three national captains – Blair, Steve Borthwick and Ryan Jones, but such may be the case in an announcement that is bound to have a few eyebrow raisers.

POSSIBLE LIONS PARTY: Lee Byrne, Rob Kearney, Shane Williams, Tommy Bowe, Luke Fitzgerald, Leigh Halfpenny, Brian O’Driscoll, Tom Shanklin, Riki Flutey, Jamie Roberts, Keith Earls, Stephen Jones, Ronan O’Gara, Mike Phillips, Tomás O’Leary, Harry Ellis; Jerry Flannery, Lee Mears, Rory Best, Gethin Jenkins, Andrew Sheridan, Euan Murray, Phil Vickery, Adam Jones, Paul O’Connell, Alun-Wyn Jones, Nathan Hines, Donncha O’Callaghan, Joe Worsley, Tom Croft, Stephen Ferris, David Wallace, James Heaslip, Martyn Williams, Denis Leamy.

gthornley@irishtimes.com