RAFAEL BENITEZ has predicted that if Liverpool are still leading the Premier League at the end of the Christmas programme, his side will have "an 80 per cent possibility" of ending the season as champions.

The manager's most bullish analysis of his team's title chances was provoked by an interview in a French magazine, translated and reprinted in the Sun, in which he appeared to write off the club's hopes of a first championship since 1990. He was quoted as saying that for Liverpool to finish first required "Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal to mess up their season . . . and that won't happen".

Benitez vehemently denies making the statement in an interview about football tactics and accused the Sun, whose sales on Merseyside were destroyed by their coverage of the Hillsborough disaster, of malice.

"Everyone in Liverpool knows about this newspaper," he said. "We are top of the table and doing well away from home. At home we have made two mistakes (the goalless draws against Fulham and West Ham) but, clearly, we are playing with a lot of confidence and have players of quality. If we can finish this Christmas period at the top of the table, we have an 80 per cent possibility of winning the title."

Until now, Benitez has been reluctant to dwell publicly on Liverpool's chances of a league title the red half of Merseyside craves even above another European Cup. When asked why he was now suddenly so confident, he replied: "One month ago, we needed to prove something and one month later we are proving to everyone that we can do it."

While it is reasonably common knowledge that only one team bottom of the table at Christmas has ever avoided relegation from the Premier League (West Brom in 2004-05), it is less well known that the last four teams to have led the table on December 25th have gone on to be champions.

Only once in the Premier League have Liverpool ever been top at Christmas or beyond and they finished the 1996-'97 season fourth. Benitez places much of his faith on the argument that under him Liverpool have always finished their campaigns strongly.

"That is why I think we can win the title," he said. "In the past, we have normally been better in the second half of the season. We have some important players who are not playing now (Fernando Torres, Martin Skrtel, Fabio Aurelio) and when they are fit they will be a good addition for the second half of the season.

"Skrtel is in the same situation as Torres, he has started running and he is very close. I cannot say whether he will be fit for Christmas, but he is close."

Torres, who will return to Barcelona for another session with Spain's leading sports-injury specialist, Ramon Cugat, in an attempt to cure persistent hamstring problems, is most unlikely to be fit for Liverpool's first and most important Christmas fixture - away to Arsenal on December 21st. However, since Torres has broken down three times this season, Benitez is anxious not to repeat the mistake of rushing him back into action and pointed out that both Manchester United and Chelsea were beaten without him.

What will encourage Luiz Felipe Scolari and Alex Ferguson, however, is that they are chasing a side with little experience of winning championships.