Breeders' Cup Preview: There are battalions of question marks lining up next to George Washington's claims to being a realistic contender in tonight's Breeders' Cup Classic but that won't stop supporters of the star Irish colt believing he can still turn into an undisputed world champion.
By now the doubts about his temperament, the trip, the dirt, and an outstanding home defence have been thrown about so much, it's just as well that "Gorgeous George" is supposed to be an arrogant sod because he would surely stay in his box if he knew the scale of the task in front of him .
"It's probably a little unfair asking him to do this," said Aidan O'Brien earlier this week. "But it is exciting."
Both points are valid, as is the suspicion this might just be the best renewal yet of the $5 million Classic. Both Bernardini from the East Coast and Lava Man from California are champions in their hemispheres. The ex-Uruguayan Invasor is undefeated in the US and the race is so good that last year's Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo is reduced to the role of huge outsider.
Put simply, the Irish horse is going to have to exhibit raw, natural running ability of once-in-a-generation magnitude to overcome all the odds against him. O'Brien describes George Washington as "the most brilliant horse" he has trained. He will have to be.
The pay-off from a victory, though, will be immense, and not just in a purely commercial sense. John Magnier, the Coolmore supremo, has a reputation for having a flint-like business brain but one other intriguing question about tonight's big race revolves around how much of a kick he will get if gambling with his best horse results in a defeat of Bernardini.
The latter, of course, is owned by Sheikh Mohammed and the thought of a possible eyeball-to-eyeball stretch clash between horses owned by the two most powerful men in world racing is a fascinating sub-plot to an already wonderful clash.
Make no mistake about it, all the recent history of stallion boycotts, multi-million dollar sales duels, supposed insults and team tactics mean victory for either will mean a real stiffening of pride.
Magnier could know his fate pretty early. George Washington may well, like most sons of Danehill, react with horror to the dirt in his face and spit the dummy out. Or raw talent may overcome everything. But the smart money surely has to be with Bernardini. Even Lava Man's trainer Doug O'Neill thinks so.
"We're excited, but we're facing a beast," he said. "Bernardini wins his races pulling away from the field without being asked. Those horses come around very rarely."
O'Brien has run 35 horses at the Breeders' Cup for a dividend of three winners and although Scorpion will try for a third Ballydoyle win in the Turf, it could be that the 20 to 1 outsider Ad Valorem in the Mile is the best Irish shout tonight.
The ground can't be too firm for the double Group One winner whose last run in Canada can be ignored as he lost a shoe. His old partner Jamie Spencer will be on board again and a number one draw means tactics will not be an issue. Spencer will have to sit and hope for the splits. At a long price, it might be worth betting that he gets them.
Scorpion's season has been badly interrupted by injury but he is still part of an unusually small team of three European runners in the Turf.
On paper, Hurricane Run is much the best in the race but his career path as a four year-old bears an uncanny resemblance to his sire Montjeu who was a busted flush by the time he made it to Churchill Downs six years ago.
Instead this could be another clash between Cacique and English Channel who are two each from their four clashes already this year. The mile and a half might just favour English Channel more.
Ouija Board is hard to oppose as she tries to add to 2004's triumph in the filly & mare turf but anyone looking for a long shot this evening could do a lot worse than the ex-French Asi Siempre in the Distaff on dirt. The four-year-old was a revelation on Keeneland's Polytrack when winning the Grade 1 Spinster on her last start. Trainer Patrick Biancone is unsure how she will act on the Churchill Downs surface but said yesterday: "If she does act on it, I think she'll win."
The Juvenile is a graveyard for future Kentucky Derby hopes and in an open field, the value could be Street Sense with an inside draw and an improving profile.
BRIAN O'CONNOR'S TIPS
5.30: Cash Included
6.10: Street Sense
6.55: Ouija Board
7.35: Henny Hughes
8.15: Ad Valorem
8.55: Asi Siempre
9.35: English Channel
10.20: Bernardini
