"Now is the time to bet like men," is one of the most celebrated lines in the recent history of English sports writing. Simple, direct, brave, it came from the pen of the sadly departed Richard Baerlein, the Observer's racing correspondent for many years. Baerlein penned it the Sunday before the 1981 derby, then still run on a Wednesday - Shergar's derby.
Baerlein loved the horse from the start and backed it and backed it, in print and with bookmakers. And on the Sunday before a derby, when racing writers have to put their credibility on the line, Baerlein backed Shergar again. The horse may have gone off at odds-on but Baerlein had so much wagered ante-post that he made a large fortune. He named his house Shergar.
It is unlikely many football writers will end up having their house called Kingstonian, score draw or away win but there is a similar principle. Betting on football should sharpen objectivity and make you search for value. Should.
It seems reasonable to assume it does not have that effect universally, which is why people like Barney Eastwood and Sean Graham live in nice houses, but in the interests of football journalism this column began the season with a cold-eyed - some might say cross-eyed - attack on the bookies armed with u £22 of dynamite tipping.
The end of the season should tell whether this has blown up the punter, and there are a couple of worrying signs that it might indeed be the case.
The smallest slice of the £22 went on Sunderland. Reckoning the Premiership to be a race for third place behind Manchester United and Arsenal who, at 8 to 11 and 4 to 1 were simply not worth backing for the title, the fact that bookmakers were offering a quarter of the odds on third place left Sunderland, at 150 to 1, too good to overlook. With hindsight Ipswich Town at 1,000 to 1 were better value, but even George Burley would surely have cautioned against putting money on the tractor boys trailing in third.
Being naturally conservative, Peter Reid would probably have said much the same, but Sunderland were clearly an improving team and, applying the value principle, were a lot more attractive than Everton at 100 to 1, Tottenham Hotspur at 50 to 1 and Newcastle United at 40 to 1 - each of whom were about as likely to finish third as teams not in the division.
The others to consider were Leeds United at 11 to 1, Chelsea at 6 to 1 and Liverpool at 11 to 2. Chelsea and Liverpool's odds were unrealistically short and there was always a doubt about what Europe might do to Leeds.
For all the value they offer, however, the possibility of seeing Sunderland in the Champions League still feels a lot less than good. Yet Ladbrokes now offer just 3 to 1 on that chance - Liverpool, quite disgracefully, are 6 to 4 on. A better bet would be Ipswich at 8 to 1. Leeds are the same price.
Leeds fans - don't bet with your heart. Your price to win the Premiership is 500-1 now, an indication of Elland Road's league season. Betting without Manchester United, Leeds are 50 to 1 to win the title. Sunderland at 10 to 1 offer better value. Twenty to 1 to win the European Cup might tempt Leeds followers but there are other useful offerings: Arsenal at 14 to 1 or Bayern Munich at 8 to 1. Manchester United are three to 1.
Generally 4 to 1 to win the FA Cup, a European-FA Cup double for Manchester United is 19 to 1. Worth a pound.
But back to this column's other pre-season efforts. Ignoring Baerlein's advice, a not-so-brave £5 each-way double on Watford to win the First Division at 16 to 1 and Brighton to win the third division at 9 to 1 is in trouble after Watford's recent decline.
Again ignoring anti-sentimental advice, Watford were backed again on Saturday at 2 to 1 to beat Everton. Graham Taylor owes us. Brighton are second and going well but such is Fulham's lead, this bet is already purely eachway.
The first division was also visited in the last bet, a u10 £10 treble on Barnsley (4 to 6) to finish above Sheffield Wednesday ; Coventry City (11 to 10) to finish above Man City and Leicester City (4 to 6) to finish above Derby County.
Leicester are 12 points above Derby and should stay in front. But Coventry's lead over City is a point and Barnsley's over Wednesday is four. Confidence in this bet is dwindling.
Consequently the search for a saver with value goes on week by week. Liverpool to win the UEFA Cup at 10 to 1? Roma at 7 to 2? Crystal Palace to win the League Cup at 11 to 1? Yesterday's effort was on Roy Keane to score in the 90 minutes at 9 to 2. Then you discover Keane has not scored in the Cup for seven years.
Now always seems to be the time to bet like a fool.
