Black and white collision to make or break

Before a ball was kicked in this World Cup, today's almighty white-and-black collision between England and New Zealand stood …

Before a ball was kicked in this World Cup, today's almighty white-and-black collision between England and New Zealand stood out as the most seismic encounter of the pool stages and the one to have the biggest bearing on the final pairing. Nothing has changed.

This is it, the big one, and of all the pool games, potentially the most likely to be repeated in the final. But for that to happen, the losers at Twickenham this afternoon would have to travel the harder and more circuitous route.

Aside from an additional playoff game against Fiji or Canada, the runners-up in this pool would then have to dethrone the holders in Paris at the quarter-final stage - that much was effectively decided by South Africa's win in Murrayfield. On top of that, the form-book points to a semi-final in Twickenham against Australia.

By contrast, today's winners would be odds-on to progress to the final, without recourse to an additional play-off game before encountering, say, Scotland in the quarter-finals and perhaps Ireland or France in the semi-finals.

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The way it pans out, this then would seem a bigger game to win for England, otherwise they might be required to beat three Tri-Nations sides on successive weekends to become champions. It's a near identical task to four years ago, when they failed in the semi-finals to New Zealand, and without doubt the biggest one imaginable. Furthermore, no side has ever lost a match in the World Cup finals and gone on to lift the trophy.

Perhaps mindful of that, Clive Woodward, the English players and the English media have been talking this game up for a very long time. "It's the biggest game of my coaching career," admits Woodward candidly.

His counterpart, John Hart, responded: "England have talked about this game for 15 months," said Hart. "Clive Woodward has been talking it up for a long time and I think there's more pressure on England than on us. This is not a final, it's a qualifying game. And there's a long way to go. You've got to be very careful thinking this game is that big."

The weight of history leans heavily in New Zealand's favour. In recent times especially, it usually does when a team from the home unions encounters one of the Southern hemisphere big three.

Europe's record is deplorable in these head-to-heads, and England's is no different, having managed just one win in their last 11 attempts against the Tri-Nations' teams, and just one win in their last nine meetings.

Yet, psychologically, the All Blacks have come to regard Twickenham as one of their trickier grounds, and most New Zealanders know it. Gnawing away at them is the fact that the All Blacks have won only once on their last four visits to Twickenham.

They must still be poring over the memorable 26-26 draw of two years ago, when they wasted a truckload of openings, and thereby spoiled an otherwise vintage year.

They've since had their annus horribilis and regrouped with a younger side, no longer drawn from their traditional Auckland stronghold of the 90s and more from the new power bases in Canterbury and Otago. But it's a relatively young and unproven side, despite this season's Tri-Nations' success, with enough doubts about their tight five especially to give hope to England, whose pack is arguably the best around.

Yet England have been handing out so many one-sided massacres of late they must have forgotten what it's like to be in a truly competitive match. How will they react? Is Jonny Wilkinson really as cool as he appears? Will they get skinned out wide, and can the All Blacks make their individual brilliance out wide count?

Also, when England gain a forward stranglehold on a game, they often struggle to finish it off - remember how Ireland stayed in the game for so long at Lansdowne Road last season, or how Scott Gibbs and Wales robbed a grand slam from under their noses at Wembley.

By comparison, with Andrew Mehrtens, the jury has long since passed its verdict. A match-winner, points gatherer and controller of games par excellence. And if they click, has there ever been an outside four to rank with Christian Cullen, Jonah Lomu, Tana Umaga and Jeff Wilson? Their potential, as much through individual moments of brilliance as an unproven cohesive unit, is almost inconceivable.

Nothing would surprise this afternoon. One thing's for sure, come 6.15 or thereabouts, we're going to know a helluva lot more about the All Whites and the All Blacks and the World Cup itself than we did before.

Gerry Thornley

Gerry Thornley

Gerry Thornley is Rugby Correspondent of The Irish Times