Blackwash to bury backlash

You'd worry about the Lions' battle fatigue at the end of a long, hard and disappointing tour on top of a long, hard season, …

You'd worry about the Lions' battle fatigue at the end of a long, hard and disappointing tour on top of a long, hard season, especially if Clive Woodward's somewhat subdued demeanour is anything to go by. When even Gareth Thomas admits to having felt downbeat, you know there's a real risk the tourists mentally have one foot aboard their early-morning departure flights on Sunday.

With nothing but Lions pride to play for against a buoyant home side determined to complete a blackwash in the City of Sails, one can even empathise with them.

Yesterday, the players looked weary. But come the day there should be a fair old buzz around Auckland, even if some supporters seem to have altered travel plans, not to mention when the anthems and haka have concluded.

For the majority, including Thomas, this will be their last appearance in the famous red jersey.

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"That's an amazing experience in itself. We're Lions and we're going to stand up tall and be proud of it," he said, still showing the effects of last weekend.

"I'd tell a lie if we weren't subdued. Myself, I've been quite down because we've lost a series and we came here to win. We've been away from home a long time and you wouldn't be human if you didn't start feeling down. But we've got 80 minutes of rugby left in us, and as far as I'm concerned if you can't get up for that, then you don't deserve to be a rugby player."

An ability to walk in a straight line without the aid of crutches and catch a rugby ball is usually enough to earn consideration for Test selection at this juncture. Being parochial for a moment, with the Irish standing up reasonably well, four make the starting XV and another three are on the bench.

You'd like to think the Lions will go into this match with a bit more ambition, especially in their back play, which has been disappointing. In theory, the Test debutants, Geordan Murphy and Mark Cueto particularly, should give them that, for they have been among those prepared to have a go.

Yet for all Woodward's protestations ("Geordan Murphy has had a fantastic tour") the Irishman's form - after a bright opener against the Bay of Plenty - appears to have tapered off a little the more he has come to realise his face didn't fit.

Behind an unchanged pack, there are four changes to the Lions backline, with Stephen Jones returning to outhalf and Will Greenwood making a first Test start per se after two injury-curtailed Lions tours and, of course, a 79-minute replacement role for the stricken Brian O'Driscoll in the first Test.

In the first two Tests, the ball often reached the outside centre, at which point he simply took it up, with Thomas having a good deal more joy than Greenwood, and one has visions of the same thing happening again despite the strike power Murphy and Cueto might bring along with Josh Lewsey.

Any sense of cohesion in the Lions' backplay cannot be helped by the constant changing, most of it injury-enforced, some of it by flawed selection. Including the initial pairing of Jonny Wilkinson and O'Driscoll, this will be the fifth midfield pairing in the Test series. Six players have been used in three ever-changing outside-three combinations. Only Dwayne Peel at scrumhalf has been the one constant throughout the three Tests, and only Jones and Thomas will have started two Tests in the same position.

Greenwood's presence, given his mileage and lack of rugby in the past season, doesn't inspire, and it's disappointing if not entirely surprising that Shane Horgan isn't being used to get the Lions over the gain line, a chronic failing thus far.

Horgan, says Woodward, was unlucky to miss out to Cueto on the right wing, which is still where he's being considered rather than in midfield. So, after just one start in a dozen games, Horgan collects his seventh number 22 jersey of the tour.

The only alteration on the bench sees Ronan O'Gara make the 22, as happened at the same juncture four years ago in Australia, when he never saw any action. Woodward listed eight players who have been ruled out of this Test in addition to the eight who have been ruled out of the tour, and this included Gordon D'Arcy, who had ruled himself out on the grounds of "general fatigue".

His hard-working performance on Tuesday was his fifth start of the tour, in addition to two replacement appearances, but one ventures he is also short on confidence.

Even allowing for this, the Lions had 32 players to choose from, only three fewer than Ian McGeechan took in entirety on the winning 1997 tour to South Africa and two more than the squad he took on the winning tour of Australia in 1989.

With Daniel Carter, Richie McCaw (pound for pound, possibly the two best players in the world) and Aaron Mauger of last week's team ruled out through injury, as well as Leon MacDonald, the All Blacks are effectively down to their fourth-choice stand-off, 21-year-old debutant Luke McAlister.

While McCaw would be a loss to a Galactico XV, an All Black backrow of Jerry Collins, Rodney So'oialo (who switches to seven) and the speedster Sione Lauaki certainly won't lack dynamic ball-carrying. It's a big ask of McAlister, but he has Tana Umaga alongside to guide him, and with Conrad Smith's distribution as a foil to Umaga's strong running the potency of the outside three should be undimmed.

The All Blacks won't be as good as last week, when they were near perfect, and they would have struggled to scale those heights even with McCaw and Carter, and without being provoked into quite the same controlled fury. But their footwork, their ferocity in the collisions and their gamebreaking flair should be enough to seal that blackwash.

Head-to-head: Played 37, New Zealand 28 wins, 3 draws, Lions 6 wins.

Head-to-head in Auckland: Played 9, New Zealand 7 wins, 1 Draw, Lions 1 win.

Biggest victory margins: New Zealand: 38-6, Auckland 1983. Lions: 20-7, Wellington 1993.

Biggest scores: New Zealand 48-18, Wellington 2005. Lions 20-7, Wellington 1993.

Most tries scored: New Zealand 9 (29-0, Auckland, 1908). Lions 4 (17-18, Dunedin 1959).

Most points by individuals: New Zealand 33 (Daniel Carter, Wellington 2005). Lions 18 (Gavin Hastings, Christchurch 1993).

Most tries by individuals: New Zealand: 3 (Frank Mitchinson 1908, Stu Wilson 1983). Lions: 2 (Carl Aarvold 1930, Malcolm Price 1959, Gerald Davies 1971).

Odds (Paddy Power): 1/12 New Zealand, 40/1 Draw, 11/2 Lions. Handicap odds (= Lions + 18 pts) 10/11 New Zealand, 16/1 Draw, 10/11 Lions.

Forecast: All Blacks to win.