"We've given ourselves a chance," said Jim Jefferies. Bradford City's third manager in eight months sat in the Stadium of Light eight days ago after watching his side comfortably hold the Premiership's second team of the moment, Sunderland, and, despite being five points off Coventry City at the bottom, made the above statement about Bradford's thoughts on avoiding relegation.

There were plenty of subdued guffaws as Jefferies spoke, but the burly Scotsman may well have the last laugh come May 19th, the Premiership's last day. An anorak afternoon spent looking at the relegation situation showed Bradford's chances are as credible as any of the five teams above them. Then there's Aston Villa.

You may well laugh, all the more when Bradford leave Highbury pointless tomorrow night, but on the evidence of their last four matches - an away win at Filbert Street, a somewhat unfortunate home defeat by Manchester United, a game they should have won against Middlesbrough in the FA Cup and the 0-0 at Sunderland - Bradford are an improving side.

Let's say they win their next home game, against Villa on Saturday. After that, even if Bradford were to win just three of their next 12 matches, and draw five, by our calculation Jefferies would take his players to Highfield Road on the final day of the season needing a draw or a win to survive. By the same calculation Coventry would almost certainly relegated by then.

The five draws for Bradford is the tricky bit. But three wins? Bradford have to host Manchester City, Charlton Athletic and Middlesbrough. They have other winnable games, too. Newcastle United, who Bradford beat at home last season, have yet to visit Valley Parade. Derby County similarly. Last April Bradford were three up against Derby and drew 4-4. They meet on the same date this year.

Moreover, Bradford have a game in hand and should not shudder when told it is Liverpool at home. It was the last day of last season that David Wetherall's goal gave Bradford victory in that fixture.

That left Bradford on 36 points, the lowest survival total since the Premiership was reduced to 20 teams after season 1994-95. Yet they could have stayed up with 34 points and that figure could suffice again.

By this column's reckoning - perhaps not the most scientific of procedures - it is hard to see Man City reaching either total. City went down with 38 points in 1996 having conceded 58 goals. They have already let in 43 and have 14 matches to play. A pessimistic view is that two are winnable - Spurs and Southampton at Maine Road. More optimistically, City also entertain Villa at the end of March. Who knows what state Villa will be in by then.

One win can make a big difference and three victories and two draws from their next 13 matches would see City host Chelsea on the last day having reached 32 points. As they are on 21 now, City followers may consider this a harsh assessment. But Wimbledon last year should be remembered: they won one and drew two of their last 15 games. They had 28 points at the end of January.

City's big moment comes at Easter when they face Leicester and Manchester United away and meet Arsenal at home.

Everton, Middlesbrough, Derby and Coventry are also behind the Wimbledon total at the beginning of February. Of these Coventry have the least to look forward to. Of the bottom six only Derby will be played before Bradford arrive. It may all be over for Gordon Strachan by then. Man United and Ipswich Town away, plus Sunderland at home - that's Coventry's Easter.

Middlesbrough's is fairly bad as well. Terry Venables will need to keep things going because at Easter Middlesbrough travel to Arsenal and Leicester and face Ipswich at the Riverside. Then they meet Man United.

Boro's search begins at Goodison Park on Wednesday. A draw seems a reasonable prediction and both sides might settle for it now. Then you see Everton's next four fixtures: Man United, Leeds, Leicester and Ipswich. Easter is bad, too. Villa, Liverpool, Arsenal.

The Toffees' crunch could be Bradford at Goodison on April 28th. Bradford, whose last four matches are Derby, Everton, Middlesbrough and Coventry, should be still fighting by then.

Derby, meanwhile, represent the spanner in all this. How good are they? Is their recent improvement sustainable or are they this year's Wimbledon. All that can be said without question is that Derby's last three opponents are Arsenal, Man United and Ipswich. Derby will probably need 11, perhaps 12, points before then, from 11 games. It sounds easier than the reality.

So we say Derby will join Coventry and Man City on the way out. Money will be placed on Bradford to stay up.

Not a lot of money, though.