Racing Champion Hurdle preview: An apparently overpowering Irish challenge will line up for today's Smurfit Champion Hurdle, with some bookmakers rating the chances of one of them coming out on top at an oppressive 1 to 12.
In bookmaker-land that's a racing certainty. But we have been here before and seen such presumption come crashing around our ears.
After all, it's less than two years since similar assumptions were being made on the long run-up to the 2003 Derby. A rare crop of three-year-olds that included Classic winners such as Alamshar, Refuse To Bend and Brian Boru, were supposed to have Epsom at their mercy. There was even a back-up squad that contained most of the rest of the ante-post fancies.
And what happened? Kris Kin, Kieren Fallon and an inspired nation-wide gamble is what happened, and spectacularly so.
Having said that, it is still hard to imagine a similar reverse happening this afternoon. For one thing, there doesn't appear to be a dark horse among the home team, and, unlike those unexposed three-year-olds of 2003, here there are formlines galore to suggest Rooster Booster and the rest are more or less peeing into the Cotswold breeze.
Instead, caution is likely to be thrown out of the bar and the real debate is likely to be which of the eight-strong Irish pack is going to come out on top.
The closer the race has come, many have decided to go with the tried and trusted course expertise of the defending champion Hardy Eustace.
It's not difficult to see why, since experience suggests this is the horse's course and his time of year. Throw in the faith his connections have that he is even better than he was when he beat Rooster Booster last year and it's a pretty convincing argument.
There remains the nagging suspicion, however, that Hardy Eustace won't have a solo run in front like he enjoyed last year. If something takes him on, will the complexion of the race change against him? At current odds it might be a question worth asking.
Harchibald was ante-post favourite for much of the season, but even then there were plenty of us waiting to take him on when he was faced with the famously stiff final hill. On the back of a poor racecourse work-out at Navan, that determination is, if anything, even more steely.
Back In Front is a different proposition and has a track record to be afraid of. Trainer Edward O'Grady has an enviable festival record too, even though this will be his first runner in the Champion Hurdle.
It is of little concern that Back In Front hasn't run since winning the Bula here in November, and he also has the assistance of Ruby Walsh in the saddle.
Walsh's great friend and rival, Barry Geraghty, is on Macs Joy, who has improved and progressed all through the season. A pair of Leopardstown Grade Ones prove he is now a top-flight performer and he will go close here if Geraghty hangs on to him longer than he did in the AIG.
Essex is the "improver" in the race, but this is traditionally a race that is hard for five-year-olds, while Accordion Etoile could need the ground marginally quicker than it is.
In contrast, the going looks to have come up ideally for last year's Supreme hero, Brave Inca, who looks a decent bet to win for the first time this season in the race that matters most.
A series of four runner-up placings hasn't dented confidence in the Colm Murphy camp that this teak-tough individual will have conditions ideal for to his style of running. A fast gallop would help Barry Cash keep a good position, and if it comes down to a scrap no one is going to get by Brave Inca without feeling it.
Macs Joy has managed to finish in front of Brave Inca three times this season and looks a potent threat if ridden for a finishing kick. Hardy Eustace looks another for the frame, but the home fans might have to take a long look down the track to see the first of the their team. Mind you, we have said that before.
1- BRAVE INCA
2- MACS JOY
3- HARDY EUSTACE
