Seán Moran On Gaelic GamesProblems sometimes take a while to crystallise. "Events, dear boy, events," was former British Prime Minister Harold McMillan's famously succinct reply to a question about what can most easily blow a government off course. This has over the intervening five decades attained the status of a political principle. You never know what's around the corner.

The GAA's national administration presumably has had an inkling of what is shaping up as a significant difficulty in the years ahead. Put simply, a suspicious - bordering on resentful - attitude to the activities of Croke Park is developing among the membership. It can be seen in the dissatisfaction with what is portrayed as over-commercialisation, the attempts to exploit as fully as possible the association's broadcasting rights, proposals to counter burnout and even the agreement with the GPA and Government despite its substance having been largely agreed by Central Council last April.

And frustratingly for those charged with running the GAA, these dissatisfactions are neither always reasonable nor indeed even their fault.

What is fashionably, but expressively, described as a "disconnect" has appeared in relations between Croke Park and the membership at large. This has manifested itself in the above issues, as well as in the anger over the intrusion of intercounty fixtures into the put-upon world of the club.

That difficulty has required a wide-ranging report and recommendations that go before next month's special congress. Acceptance of proposals intended to re-balance the competing demands of club and county would be a start in addressing a serious problem.

But this situation didn't come about simply because the intercounty season expanded 10 years ago. Long before then county competitions ran behind schedule and were often so abysmally administered that some club players were left with fixture schedules that didn't even stretch to double digits.

It's good that the GAA centrally is doing something to allow the club scene breathe, but the counties weren't doing fine until the qualifiers intruded into what had been happily viable local schedules.

In his 1994 annual report, GAA director general Liam Mulvihill had this to say about the issue: "However, there are some areas where progress has not been made to any great extent despite the highlighting of the issues over several years (my italics). Aspects which need remedial measures are: . . . a regular programme of games to be organised for players in all grades (if there are no official competitions, clubs should organise friendly or tournament games)."

Once the problem with local fixtures became identified with Croke Park, however, there was a revivalist fervour about getting to grips with it. But having voted the proposals of the Football Competitions Review Task Force into existence a year early, the counties eventually noticed the dropping penny and some - generally among those affected by exclusion from the football qualifiers, which were reduced to cut back on the intercounty season - began to whinge and grumble.

The issues that create a gulf between Croke Park and the counties have continued to emerge. Next month's special congress may well pass the proposed changes of the report on creating a better schedule of matches for clubs, but another - and arguably more important - set of proposals on burnout is likely to bite the dust.

One aspect of the broader GAA decision-making process is that it doesn't have a great concentration span.

This has plunged into gloom many intensely committed people, who have poured time and effort into analysing problems and suggesting solutions.

The instinct within gatherings like congress is to oppose change. At times, particularly well-argued cases can break through and engage delegates' attentions long enough to persuade them of their merit, and that has been the rationale behind the recent practice of "touring" major proposals in advance of congress in an attempt to break through indifference and misunderstanding.

Misconceptions tend to cause excessive focus on the solution and not enough on the problem. Media plays a role in this by reducing the results of much serious deliberation to sound-bites and headlines.

So it is with the burnout issue. There has been virtually no debate on the shocking statistics advanced by Lynette Hughes's doctoral research and the expertise of a surgeon as experienced as Gerry McEntee. Instead the starting point has been knee-jerk panic at the prospect of minor and under-21 intercounty championships being replaced on a trial basis by an under-19 grade.

That has led to plenty of opposition to the proposal but with few suggestions on how the problems stemming from the over-use of players might otherwise be addressed.

Dr Pat O'Neill, who chaired the task force, has had to explain to surprisingly eminent people that the under-19 grade only applied at intercounty, and not club, level.

It's like global warming. Everyone's aware of the problem but no one wants to change their ways to do something about it.

In fairness to Dublin chief executive John Costello, he did back up objections to the loss of minor and under-21 in his annual report by suggesting that third-level competitions should instead be curtailed.

His stance reflects an undercurrent of dissent aimed at the colleges, who, having been serially blamed for distorting county championships and unwanted intrusion into the glamour world of January's pre-season tournaments, are now charged with being unfairly protected at the expense of the intercounty youth championships.

It also reflects a potential dichotomy between football and hurling. There is an argument that the competing demands on hurlers are better spread through the year.

In administrative terms, however, it's hard to see the games being split into three intercounty underage levels, and, anyway, the crazy co-incidence of minor championships and the Leaving Certificate, which takes a huge toll on under-18s, is almost enough to warrant the changes in hurling as well.

In football the case is even harder to oppose. And whereas the Sigerson Cup and other third-level competitions largely take place in February and clash with the opening weeks of the NFL, the under-21 football championship cuts across the latter stages of the league as well as championship preparations.

Given that the counties seem unlikely to approve the task force proposals, then they should come up with suggestions that will address the urgent problems of burnout. Debates on recommendations that have been put together with the care and attention of the burnout task force's surely create a responsibility to be constructive as well as an opportunity to be negative. Were that to happen, the exercise could yet turn out to be quite useful, but don't hold your breath.

It'll be easier just to blame Croke Park.

smoran@irish-times.ie