Cardiff v Ulster:IN THE raft of statistics that Matt Williams has sought to improve (particularly the penalty count and a porous defence which has already shown improvement), is Ulster's failure to win in Wales since September 2006.
On the face of it, with Cardiff playing their third game in seven days, opportunity knocks in the Arms Park.
But Ulster's away form has been dreadful in recent times, and while their gutsy win in Connacht last season went a long way to arresting their decline and securing European qualification, in their other eight away sorties in the league last season their average losing margin was 22.5. The Ulstermen have not won in Wales since a 32-25 victory against Newport Gwent Dragons at Rodney Parade on September 9th two years ago, while their last win at the Arms Park was 25-22 precisely a year earlier. Damning stuff.
In a bid to build on last week's bonus-point defeat at home to Llanelli and to ensure some continuity, Williams has made only two changes to his starting line-up, one of which is enforced and, on last week's evidence, will hardly hamper their cause. Italian lock Carlo Del Fava picked up a neck injury and Ireland A star Ryan Caldwell will thus partner new recruit Ed O'Donoghue from the start.
And in the backrow Kieron Dawson drops to the bench to make way for another promising tyro, David Pollock. Versatile backrower Thomas Anderson is named in the squad, and the former Irish schools lock can cover both the backrow and secondrow.
Cardiff coach David Young has been obliged to juggle his resources, having made 10 changes for what seemed a comparatively under-strength side that was well beaten by the Ospreys on Tuesday. Six of those are retained in a line-up which includes five of the pack of the team that drew with Leinster.
CARDIFF BLUES:B Blair; L Halfpenny, J Robinson, G Thomas, C Czekaj; N Robinson, D Allinson; G Jenkins, T Rhys Thomas, G Powell, B Davies, P Tito (capt), M Molitika, M Williams, M Lewis. Replacements: J Yapp, G Williams, S Morgan, A Powell, J Spice, C Sweeney, J Roberts.
ULSTER:C Schifcofske; A Trimble, D Cave, R Dewey, T Nagusa; P Wallace, l Boss; J Fitzpatrick, R Best (capt), B Botha, R Caldwell, E O'Donoghue, M McCullough, D Pollock, R Diack. Replacements: N Brady, T Court, K Dawson, T Anderson, C Willis, N O'Connor, B Cunningham.
Referee:Alan Lewis (IRFU).
Betting:1/7 Cardiff, 25/1 Draw, 4/1 Ulster. Handicap odds (= Ulster +12 pts) 10/11 Cardiff, 25/1 Draw, 10/11 Ulster.
Forecast:Cardiff to win.
