As befits its lottery legend, an analysis of the Martell Grand National yesterday provoked one frustrated racing scribe to mutter: "I've examined every horse in the race and I've come to the conclusion that nothing can win!"
In recent years, the fence modifications have meant there is much more of a chance for the quality horse rather than the dependable plodder, but even with the Gold Cup fourth Double Thriller racing off 10 st 8 lb, this appears a very open race.
On form, Double Thriller could win this easily and give Paul Nicholls a remarkable Gold CupGrand National double. The question is will Double Thriller give himself the chance to do that.
The evidence so far suggests that Double Thriller is quite a "fizzy" horse who runs freely and from near the pace. Even with the ground drying out, four-and-a-half miles is a long way to pursue such a modus operandi, and at odds of as low as 7 to 2, Double Thriller is hardly a value bet.
Eudipe was this hack's idea of a possible winner until he ran an appalling race last time, and he does tend to be a gallant runner-up rather than a glorious winner.
Nevertheless, with Tony McCoy on board he has to be respected, as does Adrian Maguire's mount Addington Boy.
But with yesterday's sunshine indicating some sort of spring at Liverpool and the promise of good ground, the man who could dominate the last Grand National of the millennium is David Nicholson.
The twice champion trainer has never won this race, and the closest he has come was with Moorcroft Boy, third in 1994. This time, though, he is doublehanded with Call It A Day and Baronet, and it's worth betting that one of them will be the winner.
Both won big races last year, Call It A Day in the Whitbred and Baronet in the Scottish National. Both are dour stayers with a touch of class, both act on quick ground and both come into their own at this time of year. In a race with question marks hanging over so many of the principals, those are reasonable arguments.
Bobbyjo was a best-priced 25 to 1 yesterday, with Merry People at 200 to 1, and that just about reflects their chance of giving Ireland its first success since L'Escargot in 1975.
Bobbyjo, as a winner of the Irish National and a stayer who likes good ground, must have a decent each way chance, especially with Paul Carberry aboard and Tommy Carberry, who rode L'Escargot, training him.
Bobbyjo had a nice winning warm-up over hurdles at Down Royal last month, and if he takes to the fences could go very well.
John Queally's Merry People will also like the ground, but it would be the great race's biggest shock if he wins.
Going on the assumption of a David Nicholson victory, however, the question is which one will do it. Call It A Day was a clear second to the progressive Young Kenny in the Midlands National, form which could be anything, and he will be ridden by the race's most successful current, jockey Richard Dunwoody. He is putting up 2 lb overweight, but is surely worth it around here.
Baronet is ridden by Richard Johnson who has yet to complete the course but is top class. It's best to ignore Baronet's last race, which was on totally unsuitable ground, but one cannot ignore his tendency to put in the odd hairy jump.
Call It A Day is the better jumper and Baronet is the better price. With jumping the name of the game around Aintree, preference is for Call It A Day to give Dunwoody a third Grand National.
