CYCLING: Six years ago, when the Tour de France paid a flying visit to the Ile de Noirmoutier off the Vendee coast, Lance Armstrong took a serious option on overall victory by surviving a crash on the Passage du Gois, the slippery tidal causeway that connects the island to the mainland.
That year the eventual runner-up in Paris, Alex Zulle of Switzerland, fell off on a patch of seaweed; Armstrong stayed upright and gained the minutes that eventually won him his first Tour.
The Gois will play no part in today's time-trial, which crosses the half-mile Pont de Noirmoutier to finish on the island for the first time, but Armstrong is hoping to repeat history and gain time on his rivals over the 20 kilometres, which he says will feel "more like 30" if the wind blows across the salt marshes as strongly as it has all week.
"It is a serious stage and I will have to take time there (on the others) if possible," said the Texan, who looked over the course with the rest of his team on Thursday amid heavy showers and a strong breeze off the Atlantic. "If the weather is the same it will be a headwind all the way. It's long enough to create some time difference."
Like Miguel Indurain and Bernard Hinault before him, Armstrong has ridden so strongly in the Tour for so many years that the opposition appear ever more limited as each year their weaknesses are relentlessly exposed. Only two men appear to have the credentials to beat Armstrong: his old opponent Jan Ullrich and the Italian Ivan Basso, who broke through last year to finish third.
Ullrich, who yesterday crashed into his team manager Mario Kummer's car when it braked unexpectedly - smashing the rear windscreen and suffering cuts near his throat - is the only other man racing to have won the Tour but is a familiar sight in second place. A sixth runner-up slot would place him level with the "eternal second", Joop Zoetemelk of the Netherlands, but in finishing fourth last year he looked a shadow of his old self.
Basso is younger but the signs are contradictory. His strong stage wins in a time-trial and a mountain stage of the Tour of Italy this year promise much but they came after a stomach upset cost him all hope of overall victory.
"He has improved dramatically and I don't think he'll be happy with the way the Giro went," said Armstrong. It remains to be seen whether the Italian has the strength of character to shape the race.
The rest rank as outsiders. The Spanish climbers, Roberto Heras and Iban Mayo, have done nothing this year to indicate they will challenge, but that may be in their favour because they will hope to avoid drawing attention to themselves until the Alps in 10 days' time. The Colombian Santiago Botero is too erratic to be relied upon.
The only contender with a mindset to match Armstrong's is Alexandre Vinokourov, Ullrich's co-leader at T-Mobile. In 2003, when he finished third, he rode an under-par Armstrong ragged. There are questions about his ability to last but, if he makes it to the final week, Armstrong's seventh victory may not be a foregone conclusion.
Guardian Service
