European Cup news round-up:As coach Michael Cheika admitted yesterday, even with a slightly fanciful five-point haul against Toulouse at the RDS this Saturday, Leinster's fate is out of their hands.
Indeed, because of their failure to obtain any bonus points thus far, the even more notional ambition of a further five-point haul in Welford Road on Saturday week is unlikely to be enough to earn qualification for the quarter-finals.
Currently on eight points, a maximum haul of 18 points is very unlikely to earn one of the two best runners-up slots when looking across the other pools. Under the bonus-point system, the lowest tally for any of the best runners-up in the last four years was when Leicester squeezed through with 19 points three seasons ago. And to win Pool Six, not only would Leinster need to win both their remaining games with a bonus point or two, but they would require Toulouse to slip up at home to Edinburgh.
"All you've got to do is keep yourself in contention, because nobody has a divine right to beat everybody else," said Cheika. "We understand the game in the context of the game itself. They're probably one of the top teams in Europe and we know we need to perform, and in order to keep the group alive we need to win."
There must also be a strong desire for redemption after the sheer awfulness of their 28-14 defeat last time out in Edinburgh as well as the memory of the 33-6 defeat in Toulouse.
A rejigged and rejuvenated Toulouse lead the way in both the French Top 14 and Pool Six of the Heineken European Cup, and Cheika was suitably impressed by their storming second-half comeback in the 44-23 win over Castres last Sunday night.
"Well if you kick ball to them, they'll kill you and Castres played quite well, actually, in the first half, but then as soon as they started knocking off a little bit and kicking ball to their back three Toulouse were just electric."
Just as important will be the lessons learned from Leinster's trek to Toulouse when the home side turned a 6-6 half-time scoreline around with four second-half tries.
"Defensively, their back three played back a fair bit and then as soon as we needed to chase the game their wings came up and they closed the door on us a little bit, so we've got to be mindful of having a look to see where the space is on the field to make advantage of it. They often play that. They show you the width and they'll back their defence to cover that width and leave men back, that's why their back three is so successful.
"The question is how good you are at taking that outside space and how much you earn the right to go wide by taking the ball up the middle."
What has really impressed Cheika about Toulouse this season has been their significantly improved forward play under the guidance of Yannick Bru, their long-serving hooker until last season.
Cheika would love to have a full deck of cards to deal from but accepts that's rarely likely to be the case in the middle of the season. But of their walking wounded, the Leinster coach admitted Shane Horgan's rib injury means he has less than a 50-50 chance of playing even though he was named in a 26-man squad yesterday.
Whereas Horgan is still unable to do contact work, Rob Kearney came through a full session yesterday and looks set to return. Longer term, the cast was removed from Chris Whitaker's fractured ankle yesterday and he remains on course for a mid-February return.
However, "a major issue" is the prospect of Stanley Wright joining the other first-choice prop, Ollie le Roux (who was not named yesterday), on the injured list.
"It really is a shame because he (Le Roux) came to play in these matches, and he's really disappointed at this stage. We haven't included him in the squad but we might get a miracle cure out of him yet."
Hence, Cian Healy may make only his second start at loosehead, with Stephen Knoop at tighthead after his 33-minute run-out against the Ospreys having been sidelined since October.
"They (Toulouse) have got a very strong scrum. If one scrum has tested us this year it's been theirs. We didn't go backwards against them but it was a tough battle down there and along with both (Jean-Baptiste) Poux and (Daan) Human, (William) Servat (the hooker) makes a big difference to their scrum. We've picked out a few things and especially in relation to a young lad like Healy, he's going to have to have all that information in his kitbag if he's going to take on that type of experience."
Even so, Cheika concedes he genuinely has selection dilemmas in the "backrow, frontrow, scrumhalf and the combination of the back line and it's not actually lip service, they're actually real decisions to make and that's a better situation than we've had before."
Ultimately, one presumes the team will read something like: Dempsey, Fitzgerald (or Horgan), O'Driscoll, D'Arcy, Kearney, Contepomi, Easterby; Healy, Jackman, Knoop, Cullen, O'Kelly, Keogh, Gleeson and Heaslip.
One way or the other, Cheika vowed: "We're going to have a team that's going to have a real commitment to playing good football and making sure that we show them what it's like to play in Dublin."
LEINSTER (squad v Toulouse):
Forwards (14):Cian Healy, Ronan McCormack, Brian Blaney, Bernard Jackman, Stephen Knoop, Stan Wright, Leo Cullen, Trevor Hogan, Cameron Jowitt, Malcolm O'Kelly, Stephen Keogh, Keith Gleeson, Shane Jennings, Jamie Heaslip.
Backs (12):Guy Easterby, Chris Keane, Felipe Contepomi, Jonathan Sexton, Luke Fitzgerald, Rob Kearney, Gordon D'Arcy, Christian Warner, Brian O'Driscoll, Gary Brown, Shane Horgan, Girvan Dempsey.
