Connacht stand on the brink of qualifying for the knockout stages of the European Shield for the second year in a row prior to their crunch game against main group rivals Caerphilly in Wales this afternoon. In what effectively looks like a mini play-off for the Pool A runnersup slot, victory for Connacht coupled with a Rovigo win over Perigeux in Italy this evening would copper-fasten that second place.
Against that however, a Caerphilly win would see them level with Connacht prior to the last round of matches, when the Welshmen would be favoured to beat Newport as would Connacht at home to Racing Club. Perigeux, at home to Narbonne in the final round, could also enter the equation.
Caerphilly, Welsh division two champions last season, appear to be a stiffer obstacle than Newport, whom Connacht comfortably accounted for in their group opener. The newly promoted Welsh side have acquitted themselves reasonably well in the top flight with wins over Neath and Newport and a draw with Bridgend leaving them in midtable.
Prior to that Caerphilly had completed a rare Welsh double over French opposition and, even more of a collector's item, a Welsh win on French soil when overcoming Racing Club by 31-20. Admittedly, this was courtesy of seven penalties by Brett Davey coupled with a sendingoff for the home side. Even so, Caerphilly will clearly command a decent performance from Connacht if they are to take that decisive step into the quarter-finals.
Although their luck seems to have evened out with the far from flattering defeats to Narbonne and Ulster in their last two outings, Connacht are arguably playing some of their brightest rugby of the season. And even if he is a long way from firing on all cylinders, Eric Elwood's return will surely be a timely tonic for the men in green.
Otherwise, they've hit a very settled selection pattern, and despite the disappointment of missing out on the top two in the interpros again, they still have plenty to play for this season - there is still the chance of them obtaining a home quarter-final by having the best record of the three second-placed pool sides.
Victories in their remaining two games, coupled with an eminently feasible sequence of results in Pool B (Castres beating Montferrand at home and Dax winning at Bourgoin today, with Dax also beating Castres at home next week) would bring that home quarter-final to light.
Either way, such is their style of play - somewhat like Ireland, Connacht are hard to beat, but equally rarely win matches easily - that it may be another tight, close encounter of the Connacht kind, requiring a trademark final-quarter flourish to ensure a win. But they should get there in the end.
