If, as Alan Hansen says, the game is about percentages, then the walking Liverpool legend will have been pleased to hear Gerard Houllier talking this week about the team he has at the club Hansen knows so well. "We're 80-85 per cent of the way there with the side," said Houllier. Percentage-wise, Houllier's reconstruction job at Anfield is almost complete. A roof in the shape of a new goalkeeper means it should be finished this summer. Then the Premiership can be challenged. Houllier and Liverpool, it seems, are on the cusp.

Before then, ahead of schedule, there may be some silverware to justify Houllier's assessment. The Frenchman is into the fourth month of his third year in sole control at Anfield and, as he frequently points out, it took Alex Ferguson four years to win a trophy at Manchester United. Tomorrow Liverpool are keen favourites to beat First Division Birmingham City in the League Cup final in Cardiff. Should Liverpool win, Gerard will be one step ahead of Alex.

That's the kind of statement the suffering Liverpool diehard clings to. For the decayed decade that was the 1990s, all that mattered domestically and, hurtfully, in Europe, occurred 35 miles away in Manchester. But Gerard ahead of Alex - Sir Alex. Well.

Of rather greater pertinence to the neutral observer craving some competition in England's Premiership was the somewhat more substantial statistic that on Thursday night Liverpool were three-quarters of their way through a quartet of fixtures that should define their season and possibly their future.

That is if you believe in moments in football, such as Everton's famous win at Oxford United or Manchester United's FA Cup win against Nottingham Forest in 1990 that may have saved Ferguson's job. From what we have seen of Houllier, though, he believes in controlled evolution rather definitive moments.

Even though Liverpool have come through the first three quarters of their test successfully - Roma away and at home (just), Manchester City in the Cup - Houllier's memory is long enough to encompass November when Liverpool lost consecutive Premiership matches away from home at Leeds, Tottenham and Newcastle and the Merseyside radio phone-ins featured grumpy fans complaining about the lack of direction.

As Hansen's partner on the pitch and in the studio, Mark Lawrenson, said: "It wasn't so long ago that people were saying that Houllier didn't have it or didn't know where he was going." Yet at the beginning of this week Houllier was being compared to Ferguson in some heavyweight publications.

Lawrenson is fairly sceptical about some of the media froth and pointed to a significantly more telling aspect of the current situation at Anfield. "The thing about the Liverpool hierarchy is that they have a five-year plan, a five-year plan with Houllier in charge," said Lawrenson. "Even if they lost to both Birmingham City and Roma he would still be the manager. The people upstairs are looking longer term.

"He's getting there with the team. I don't think Sander Westerveld is a top class keeper and if they are going to challenge for the Premiership then they need a 15 point a season goalkeeper. And I think he needs a wide player, the ones he has are very much midfield players playing wide. When you look at really top teams they have lots of width. But other than that they have depth in a good squad, and hunger. There is a real feel-good factor about what is happening."

Barring goalkeeping and width, Lawrenson was at a loss when asked about legitimate criticisms of Houllier's Liverpool. Even of the £60 million that has been spent, Lawrenson said: "Well, I think that shows you how far away Liverpool were. And if he'd sold Steve McManaman he'd have got £15 million for him."

Lawrenson then paid Houllier the ultimate Anfield compliment: "He's very much a Liverpool manager. He doesn't overreact to defeats either unlucky or bad and he doesn't go over the top when they win. Gerard is a gentleman, very bright. He knows when eventually he's going to be judged. He has a great understanding, that's why the whole Spice Boys thing has been addressed."

The reinvention of the training ground at Melwood is further material evidence of Houllier's impact. It immediately became a place of work rather than leisure - "They have to live for the job, not use the job to live well," Houllier said of his players this week. The ban on mobile phones was an early sign of Houllier's intent. Then he tackled the alcohol issue, telling The Irish Times last year of how he had drummed into Steven Gerrard's head the debilitating effect of drinking on professional sportsmen. Judging by the removal of mini-bars from each player's hotel room in Rome, it is a constant battle.

And a constant battle is probably one way Alex Ferguson would describe the job of being a football manager. Houllier knows this too. But, like Arsene Wenger, Houllier is reluctant to go to war. Houllier has a different weapon for that - Phil Thompson.

"A good foil," is how Lawrenson sees Thompson to Houllier. "To an extent you've got to have good cop bad cop and if the coach can be the bad cop and the manager the good cop then that's perfect. You're dealing with millionaires these days, it can be difficult to motivate players. If the manager can be in a position to arbitrate then that way he doesn't make enemies."

But are they not an odd couple? "I think the football club wanted the continuity of having an old player on the staff. Sammy Lee was there but they also knew of Phil Thompson's passion for the club. It's a bit like having Ronnie Moran."

Moran, of course, was a fundamental part of the Shankly-Paisley boot-room mentality. Thompson was one of its beneficiaries. Yet on Thursday Houllier was annoyed by the tribute to Bob Paisley before kick-off, he knows that Liverpool desperately need some new history to cherish. "I'm sure the man himself would not have wanted it before a game," said Houllier.

Tomorrow offers a first possibility of new history, though Houllier is aware that finding that extra 15-20 per cent for next season may be a good deal harder than beating Birmingham. While appreciative of the European glow created by beating a team like Roma, leaders of Serie A by six points, over two legs, Houllier did not allow the 2-1 aggregate victory to cloud what was only a so-so performance by his side. "Still a lot to do," he said.

Others would do well to remember that. The benefit of referees' decision-making aided Liverpool not only against Roma on Thursday but also against City. Liverpool's Premiership position, 18 points behind United, five behind Arsenal, is a clearer indication of where the club are at. Had Roma wanted the UEFA Cup as much as Serie A they would have played Francesco Totti and Gabriel Batistuta from the start.

Wishful thinking is part of Liverpool's problem, from within and without. "I would love to see Liverpool take things a stage further and launch a genuine title challenge next season," said John Aldridge on Tuesday after Tranmere Rovers had set up a remarkable FA Cup quarter-final with his former team. "The whole country is crying out for someone to emerge and give United a run for their money, someone capable of giving the league back its edge." Liverpool, he hoped, were that team.

But being on the edge is precarious. "It's the breakthrough," said the commentator on Thursday when Liverpool were gifted a second half penalty. But it wasn't. Michael Owen missed. A reminder that new dawns fade as well as rise.