PM O'Sullivan The Ciotóg SideTwo days to go and two counties left. Such is September, each September. Two very different sides, though, sides at markedly disjunct stages of development.
Part of the fascination? Only Kilkenny have any air of mystery about them. Noreside's likely fortunes remain cloaked in guesses and intuitions and inferences, all bunched further by a selection unreleased at time of writing.
Cork named a team unchanged save for one positional switch. For at least two seasons now, Leeside's excellence has been that of a magician who performs naked: no sleeves, no pockets, no nothing. All done out in the open and still no way of quite seeing the trick. No rush, no massive push, no land immediately theirs: just an implacable tightening of gestures, doves scattering from handkerchiefs and players in telling positions that seemed impossible to reach.
Pundits of all kinds are giving Kilkenny little chance, which is precisely why they might win. Not for a long time have they entered a decider with so little pressure on them. Their liking for the underdog status will not bring them victory on Sunday. But increased focus, resulting from that status, will be a boon. Expectation lies more heavily on Black and Amber, as confirmed by their recent Devon Loch-like collapse against Cork in the intermediate final, than on any other colours.
Enough is enough, in good and bad senses. Their masterful display against Clare in the Munster semi-final aside, the champions have been doing just about enough. How much weight should be granted to their one-point margin of victory against both Limerick and Waterford? Are Kilkenny not at least the equal of those teams?
Pattern is the point to which, having circled, you will return. Individual displays will be far more important to the contenders than to the champions. A player decent but uninspired in Red and White can still contribute, via making the understood moves, a fair whack. Black and Amber, still seeking a deep-grooved pattern of play, require more individual gaiscí. Ingrained habits win space more easily, because more consistently, than off-the-cuff brilliance.
The poker analogy sometimes favoured in this column once more offers shorthand. If Kilkenny's chances were a starting hand and someone raised after the flop, you would best fold, given the odds available on said hand emerging as "the nuts" (that is, as the best possible combination). There are too many variables, particularly in defence: J J Delaney's absence, Michael Kavanagh's return, John Tennyson's recent injury, Jackie Tyrell's proper position.
The Cats, with their nine lives, will therefore need to gamble. An initial cut would be starting Henry Shefflin at full forward, to batten on any early chances. Equally, frees blown against Brian Lohan early in the semi-final had a significant impact on his performance. Referee Barry Kelly's attitude will be very important.
All commentators concur on midfield as a crucial sector. While Derek Lyng might seem a better physical match-up with Tom Kenny than Cha Fitzpatrick, this arrangement is a hard one to call. Lyng, with more outright pace than Fitzpatrick, has the temperament to do a strict marking job on Jerry O'Connor. Kenny is not a particularly accomplished striker (especially off his left) and the rising Ballyhale man is excellent at hooking and blocking.
Once Kenny and O'Connor are gone, they are gone. So Black and Amber's suit must be hustling hard at point of breakdown rather than chasing ball already won. Poker terms? The Rebels must be denied seeing the flop in midfield, where they will bet and bet on native pace.
Quell the champions lár na páirce and Leeside's chances wane in notable degree. Very hard to achieve, of course. But Fitzpatrick has the nous for translating a high percentage of his possessions into scores. If he manages a good start, it would mean Kenny and O'Connor having to brush up on marking duties at the expense of forays forward.
Noreside's management must be prepared to introduce fresh legs at centrefield for the final quarter or so. Michael Fennelly has been an effective substitute in this area. Do not be surprised to see Cha Fitzpatrick have a late stint in the full-forward line.
Decisive turns of cards will come in the Rebel half-back line, where aerial dominance must be prevented. Sliotar secured, the storied trio pop it up to their runners, unleashing attacks that are exceptionally hard to counter. Eddie Brennan's liking for foraging deep will keep Ó hAilpín farther from his corner back than he typically likes. For this observer, Brennan is the key man, being the most unpredictable man.
Much of Eddie Keher's lustre is due to his role in Kilkenny's defeat of Cork in 1969 and in 1972. Both occasions, the Leesiders were meant to be shoo-ins. An intriguing dynamic arises any time a county goes into an All-Ireland final with its prospects deemed slim. Whatever his current stature, this county's star player has a chance to vault even higher in the pantheon. Henry Shefflin, if he can exert decisive influence, will make that leap.
Risk and nerve and the unexpected. And a penalty to play a decisive part. And Shefflin's day.
Something like 2-18 to 1-17.
