All-Ireland SHC Final/Cork v Kilkenny: I can see Kilkenny winning tomorrow but such an outcome isn't easy to rationalise. On most logical criteria you'd have to edge towards Cork.
We've seen more of Cork under pressure and are more familiar with how they react. That is the key difference. A lot of Kilkenny players will be new to this sort of challenge, as they never looked like losing the Clare or Galway games and Leinster failed to offer a genuine test. The biggest pressure for most of them is during training matches but that can only tell a manager so much. I was convinced Tipperary would beat Waterford in the quarter-final after seeing them train the week before. I was wrong.
The whole season has been moving towards this game. Apart from Cork's semi-final with Waterford, there has been no real danger of either team losing. Granted, Cork were given their biggest fright by Limerick but on a day they had everything to lose they pulled through and I wouldn't read too much into it.
Cork have been largely unchanged on the march towards three-in-a-row. Some, myself included, thought that might prove a negative because of the lack of new blood but it has an upside, as shown by Kerry's four-in-a-row side. There's no confusion over the first team and substitutes, especially now the regular replacement Neil Ronan has been incorporated into the side. Cork play to a familiar structure and style every time.
On the other hand, even for Brian Cody, it must be desperately difficult to pick the Kilkenny team. He can see certain permutations in training but they have not been tested in a match environment.
In the absence of JJ Delaney, Tommy Walsh will surely figure at corner back. This is unfortunate on a personal level for Tommy as this is the first year he has had a consistent run in the one position - at number seven, where he is named tomorrow. He's been outstanding there, but he showed in the Clare game, when he single-handedly sorted out the problems inside, that for the sake of containing the opposition and for the greater good of the team his fire-brigade service is needed closer to goal.
Kilkenny have a plethora of forwards who haven't nailed down their own positions in a cohesive unit.
Henry Shefflin should start at full forward, and for Kilkenny to win he must make an impact early before going in against the Cork half-back line. But he needs to be on his game and will have little effect on Ronan Curran and the others if he's moving out having failed to get the better of Diarmuid O'Sullivan.
Martin Comerford also has a role to play in this. If Kilkenny's big guns fail to stymie the influence of Seán Óg, John Gardiner and Curran - well, the game is up.
Kilkenny must dominate the opening skirmishes if they are to win. The other forwards need to generate an early rhythm, especially the likes of Eddie Brennan, Eoin Larkin and Richie Power. Their training-ground rotation policy is all well and good, but individual forwards must be going well for this to be effective.
Kilkenny need goals to win. Cork needed a goal to get away from Waterford, and around 20 points has been their limit this season. Kilkenny are well capable, weather permitting, of getting goals and racking up a scoreline of something like 3-13.
For a while after watching Kilkenny beat Tipperary in the league earlier this year I had no doubt they would win the All-Ireland. In the meantime, however, doubts have surfaced because of their unsettled nature and the failure of any opposition to really test them. Some frailty has been exposed in every match and now they are dealing with injuries to important players.
Nonetheless everyone is under the impression Cork are fantastic under pressure. What pressure? They trailed Waterford by four points but there were 25 minutes remaining. Limerick put them under "pressure" and Tipperary gave them a challenge in the Munster final but the white heat involved in facing their equals has yet to materialise. Parachute Kilkenny into Waterford's position in the semi-final and it could have been an eight or nine-point gap. If Cody's team found themselves in Limerick's position in the quarter-finals I have no doubt they would have beaten Cork.
Cork will target Kilkenny's lack of pace in defence - James Ryall aside. John Tennyson and Jackie Tyrell can both be exposed. For all the criticism levelled at the Cork half-forward line they are to a man workaholics, while Timmy McCarthy has the pace and power to cause plenty of damage, as he has done in previous All-Irelands.
Kilkenny come in with other handicaps. The loss of JJ Delaney. Can Tennyson recover from a dislocated shoulder in just three weeks? Is Richie Power fully fit? All this uncertainty may work against them but they could have charged any price at Nowlan Park last Saturday for their final training session. The sheer intensity would have been a sight to behold.
No other county could replace the likes of JJ, Peter Barry and DJ Carey.
I have no doubt Kilkenny will perform; it's how well their untried players can play that will count. They must unsettle Cork early on and need goals - which they are capable of getting. Historically the favourites' tag in this fixture can be a liability, and Kilkenny are dangerous in the unusual role for them as underdogs.
Maybe we can expect a first All-Ireland-final draw since Waterford met Kilkenny in 1959. The logistical chaos that would cause makes Murphy's Law all the more applicable.
I think this will be a close game. Cork's experience and the surge of support from their fans, who will heavily outnumber Kilkenny's, with a three-in-a-row in sight should push them over the line. They have more proven leaders around the field and their individual commitment and collective attention to the most minuscule of detail deserve historical recognition.