HURLING ANALYST:Waterford should play an orthodox game and their best games are played off-the-cuff without over-analysis

I FIND this very hard to figure out. I had been attaching some importance to league form and after Cork beat Tipperary that seemed justified but I’m having doubts now having watched Galway and Kilkenny in the championship.

On league form Cork were good and Waterford impressive enough even though missing players and the general impression is there’s not a lot between them, even on the championship evidence so far.

Waterford were expected to destroy Clare and that didn’t happen. In fact by half-time they needed a big performance to get out of trouble, even with the wind. They managed that but there were still doubts and it took a big impact from the substitutes’ bench to rescue them.

Since then we haven’t seen Clare so it hasn’t been possible to get any confirmation of their form.

With Cork you have to wonder how good they were against Tipperary and how much the match was influenced by a poor Tipp challenge. Cork’s half backs were imperious but they were left unmarked at puck-outs.

Last week in Leinster at least we had established a level for Galway over their three championship games and picked up little signs from Kilkenny in the defeat of Dublin. But the Limerick semi-final was a non-event so we’re not much wiser about Cork. I think ultimately they are a better team than they were last year. Up to the league final they were fairly useful. The full-back line has improved and the half backs look to be in better form.

But, then again, two of the three Tipperary half forwards were taken off that day in the Páirc and the other, Séamus Callanan, was replaced against Wexford. So it may be the familiar problems have re-emerged in that sector for Tipp.

Anyway, for whatever reason, Cork got momentum. John Gardiner was given the freedom of the park and maximised the opportunities to drive ball over his half forwards and into Aisake Ó hAilpín. This also helped disguise the fact Cork only have one conventional ball winner in the half forwards, Niall McCarthy, and in Ben and Jerry O’Connor two players who would struggle for primary possession if they were playing in front of any other goalkeeper besides Dónal Óg Cusack. But the O’Connors’ pace, combined with the mobility of Tom Kenny and Cathal Naughton, makes Cork unorthodox but effective around that middle area.

That said, Aisake was the difference against Tipperary. He created absolute panic but Tipperary were very naïve in selling themselves on primary possession, which they couldn’t get given the quality of ball going into the Cork full-forward line.

The first rule is, close down the half backs and limit the supply of primary possession. Second, if there’s a lot of good ball going into Aisake expect him to catch it and concentrate on stopping him from playing it.

The problem for Waterford is they don’t have an experienced full back. If Liam Lawlor plays there, as he did in the league, it’s asking a lot of someone in their first Munster final to stand there watching his man catching ball and not panic.

Waterford will however be better equipped to counter Cork’s half backs. Séamus Prendergast played well when he came on against Clare and Stephen Molumphy has had a good year to date, close to his best, and Kevin Moran has developed a lot over the league. That’s a physically strong half-forward line that won’t shirk the challenges. In general, they won’t stand off Cork like Tipp did.

I believe Waterford should play an orthodox game. There’s a danger they’ll think too much about containing Cork’s puck-out strategy, a bit like Dublin did against Kilkenny, or worrying about Aisake. Waterford’s best games are played off-the-cuff without over-analysis.

In some ways this looks cut-and-dried. Tipperary were the only team in most people’s eyes who could trouble Kilkenny and Cork destroyed them. Cork are also better prepared and coming from a happy camp, presided over by Denis Walsh.

Waterford were off form last year even though they got to the All-Ireland semi-final and gave their best performance against Kilkenny. This year has been pretty good in that they didn’t do badly in the league and certain players, Moran and Molumphy in particular, showed form.

Noel Connors is as good a corner back as there’s around plus he’s young and improving. The speculation they’ll move John Mullane to full forward makes sense in that he’s had difficulties with Brian Murphy in the past and can prove a handful for Eoin Cadogan.

A lot will depend on how Eoin Kelly plays. He’s capable of shooting a lot of wides but also of scoring goals to make up for it, as well as being a very capable goalscorer from close-in frees, as good as Joe Canning.

At their best, Waterford are capable of winning this but Cork are more likely to play to their potential and deserve to be slight favourites.

We’ll have a better pointer to Waterford’s chances later today when Clare play in Croke Park in the qualifiers. I don’t think Dublin are as bad as they looked against Kilkenny but I don’t think they’ll win this either. I liked Clare’s spirit and application as well as their hurling against Waterford and they will take beating today.

Dublin tend to find the supposedly more accessible games more difficult and their form to date hasn’t been anything like last year’s.

In the other qualifier Offaly showed they were more or less as good as Galway in the Leinster semi-final whereas Limerick were more competitive than expected against Cork. They also showed good heart but they’re not ready for the physical demands of this level and Offaly have plenty of physical strength.

Even though Offaly play better against Galway than nearly anyone else and can struggle when favourites, they’re on a roll and I can’t see them not winning.