JOHN O'KEEFFE FOOTBALL ANALYSTCork survived last Sunday thanks to a freakish endgame but lightning will hardly strike twice for them tomorrow
REPLAYS ARE notoriously unpredictable but, using last week as a start point, Cork must feel they have a psychological advantage. Kerry will merely seek a repeat performance, albeit with some improved shooting.
When Conor Counihan and his players sat down to analyse the drawn game they would have been happy with the result considering how badly they played. It really was a freak occurrence to score 2-2 in the last five minutes.
The gulf in quality between the teams remains vast and I just wonder whether Cork can ever bridge the gap. With the exception of John Miskella, all their players lost the man-on-man confrontations or will at least be disappointed with their efforts.
The challenge now is to express themselves more as footballers, something they clearly failed to do the last day.
Do Cork really have the skills to compete? The main difference between the sides was in the art of kicking - in all areas of the field - though Kerry posted a surprising number of wides last Sunday, and their scores-to-wides ratio can only improve this weekend.
Kerry were far more accurate in their passing too.
Cork overdid the long ball into Michael Cussen, failing to make enough use of their two fine corner forwards - Daniel Goulding and John Hayes. If this is not remedied tomorrow they will lose. All good football teams vary the point of attack.
I expect Tommy Griffin to be with Cussen again despite being named at midfield in place of Darragh Ó Sé.
Another aspect of the malfunctioning Cork attack was the complete absence of support from the half-forward line.
I'm amazed at the team Counihan released on Tuesday night and would be even more astonished if this 15 were to actually take the field. Kevin O'Connor and Ger Spillane were well off the pace - Spillane was dragged out of the centre-back position, leaving a massive gulf down the middle of the Cork defence.
This meant the essential cover in front of Kieran Donaghy was absent - a cardinal sin against Kerry. Michael Shields and Noel O'Leary must be strong contenders to come into the half-back line.
Seán O'Brien is normally so good at sweeping up the breaking ball but, again, he was anonymous.
Donncha O'Connor and James Masters should start. O'Connor is Cork's best scoring forward at present, while Masters can supply the type of angled ball into Cussen that will cause serious problems. He also has the ability to mix it up as a playmaker on the 40.
I can't see Alan O'Connor surviving at midfield either. With Darragh suspended, this game looks a perfect fit for Nicholas Murphy and his fielding exploits. For so long he has struggled in the shadow of Ó Sé but this could well be his day. That is, assuming Cork have the good sense to start him.
It cannot be overstated how vital it is that Counihan gets his best 15 on the field from the throw-in. There can be no margin of error, because Kerry are coming back to finish the job they will feel should have been taken care of a week ago.
Pat O'Shea's job can't have been too difficult these past few days. He could accentuate the many positives from the opening 60 minutes, particularly how well they collectively reacted to Darragh being sent off. They have been together now for a number of years and know how to win games, how to kill off the opposition. Last week will be put down to a minor aberration.
If they can keep Kieran Donaghy close to goal and near Colm Cooper they should be fine. But if midfield becomes a problem - which it so easily could when Cork flood the region - Donaghy will have to come out and a lot will then be expected of young Tommy Walsh. Basically, Kerry are a poorer team when Donaghy is farther from goal. Yet, it all hinges on the quality of ball coming in; that is the key to beating Kerry.
The absence of Darragh Ó Sé is a serious blow; he is the natural leader of this team and has a settling effect in times of trouble. Graham Canty and Murphy will look to exploit his absence. But Kerry should cope.
I'm expecting a vastly improved Cork performance, but Kerry will have learned their lesson and should pull away.
Tyrone go in as overwhelming favourites in the second match but the dismantling of Dublin in hindsight seems more about the collapse of Paul Caffrey's men than a return to the brilliance of 2005 for Tyrone.
Sometimes it happens that up to 13 or 14 players have a bad day. That happened to Dublin. Having said that, Wexford will struggle to handle the in-form Seán Cavanagh; Philip Wallace will probably be tasked with following him out to the wing and back to midfield.
Wexford manager Jason Ryan has proven himself an excellent tactician and should ensure a decent supply of cover in defence. If Tyrone get an early lead it could get ugly but if Wexford hold to the last 10 minutes I would nearly favour them.
Problem is I see Tyrone snatching that early lead. They have an excellent philosophy as a team that attacks and defends as one unit. Their support play is terrific to watch. There is so much trust in the collective that a wing back like Davy Harte can drift upfield knowing he will be on the end of a move.
This stage is where Matty Forde belongs but he can expect two or three Tyrone defenders swarming around him whenever he gets the ball. When he is without it I'm sure Ryan McMenamin will be there for company.
Wexford must play with some abandon; a conservative approach will kill them.
With the likes of Conor Gormley and Enda McGinley in such fine form, along with Cavanagh and the perpetual motion of Brian Dooher, I can't see past Tyrone.
