Munster Senior Cup: If the form guide can be believed the Munster Schools Cup final may be switched from Musgrave Park to Thomond Park as an all-Limerick decider looks a probability this year, Crescent Comprehensive and St Munchin's College being a decent bet to meet for the first time on St Patrick's Day.
The problem with "on paper" form is it can so easily be ripped up come match day, especially at the semi-final stage of this competition. Also, the Cork superpowers, CBC and Presentation, will relish the unfamiliar underdogs tag.
Crescent's preparations have been nothing short of professional. Last summer the squad represented Ireland in Japan at a worldwide schools tournament, finishing fifth after accounting for the Australian and Scottish teams but bowing out to a powerful South African unit.
Staying true to Limerick rugby traditions, Crescent gave the victors a battle to remember, as long time coach Dudley Herbert recalls: "The South African school were phenomenal at the rucks - they really cleaned us out and took a decent lead. But we came back at them and were only beaten by two points in the end. I think we shocked them a little when we showed we could take it but also give it out."
Sounds like the experience gained that will be beneficial if they are ever defending a slender lead, while camping on their own line in injury-time.
On February 9th they face Glenstal Abbey in the tie of the quarter-finals. Once regarded as the gentlemen of Limerick rugby, Glenstal are now competitive in the physical stakes and duly handed their upcoming opponents a solid beating (21-10) in the pre-season.
"We beat ourselves that day," notes Herbert. "This is one of those years when things haven't quite clicked yet. We have lost a lot of games by narrow margins so we just hope to turn things around in time.
"Glenstal have produced one of their best teams since 1969 (when they made the final). They have a strong pack and use the crash ball very well around the fringes."
All true, but not since Irish international David Wallace's era in 1994 and '95 have Crescent been pre-cup favourites. They won the competition in 1994 before returning to the final the following year only to experience a disastrous day when nine kicks at goal went astray, resulting in the cup going to Pres Cork, under the guidance of Peter Stringer and Ronan O'Gara.
Again, the lack of an established place-kicker may be their Achilles' heel. One thing's for certain with captain Dee Maguire and Irish schools international Barry O'Mahony flanking down the scrum: no side will easily bludgeon their defence around the rucks. Out wide they have Munster schools players in Ronan O'Sullivan, Cian Ahearne and Paddy Carroll so the balance is also there.
Pres await the winners of the all-Limerick affair with only a major upset against the Mungret Cup winners to deny them a semi-final berth.
CBC Cork may not be the force of previous campaigns but Munster coach Peter Melia has harnessed a pack that should prove too powerful for Árd Scoil Rís. Victory will set up a semi-final against either St Munchin's or Rockwell. Munchin's, led by hooker Ger Slattery, are expected to prevail in both contests to set up the tasty Limerick finale.
Well, on paper it appears that simple.
QUARTER-FINALS
February 9th: Glenstal Abbey v Crescent CC, Clanwilliam (TBC), 3.0; Mungret Cup winners v Pres Cork, TBC, 3.0.
February 10th: CBC Cork v Árd Scoil Rís, Musgrave Park, 3.0.
February 13th: St Munchin's v Rockwell College, Thomond Park, 3.0
