This promises to be the day which decides the destiny of English cricket. By the time the rain arrived yesterday evening, to deprive a sparse crowd of the final 80 minutes of the fourth day, New Zealand had begun bowling themselves to their second win of the series.

To save the match and any semblance of credibility, England must bat through the final day, and they must do so having already lost their temporary captain Mark Butcher and, disastrously, Mike Atherton, no stranger to rearguard actions beyond the call of duty, to Daniel Vettori's final ball of the day.

Alec Stewart remains unbeaten on 47, having hit seven fours in a second-wicket stand of 99 with Atherton, but he had begun to be worried by Vettori, operating from over the wicket but pitching the ball on the stumps.

The repercussions of defeat could be widespread and severe. Last night, what had been planned as a chummy get-together, over dinner, of England and Wales Cricket Board bigwigs, Nasser Hussain and the coach-to-be Duncan Fletcher, had been turned into a meeting of the war cabinet that could see sweeping policy changes not just for the final Test at the Oval but for the winter as well, and a streamlining of the selection process itself with Graham Gooch and Mike Gatting removed from influence.

These two selectors, believed to have outvoted the chairman David Graveney on key issues, have blundered. The return to the perceived comfort zone of the old brigade for the purposes of this match has, thus far, failed, something even a draw cannot camouflage.

If the cricket at Lord's smacked of incompetence, then this match has been a story of one side, shot to pieces and devoid of confidence, being outplayed by another demonstrating that a good team is greater than the sum of its constituent parts. England began their reply with positive intent. Butcher, a player whose place is in jeopardy, needs the luck to run with him, but yet again he found himself out early.

Atherton and Stewart then embarked on the sort of partnership that had seen them add 126 on this ground to help deny South Africa a year ago. Anything hittable, Stewart dispatched ferociously, while Atherton looked sound and was moving nicely into his strokes.

Vettori decided to go over the wicket, however, and immediately found purchase, creating problems for Stewart, less happy against spin. Yet it was Atherton who succumbed, sweeping vigorously as Vettori strayed, the ball looping to Nathan Astle at slip amid a flurry of bat and arms. The appeal was confident but, as replays were to show, ill-founded: the ball had brushed the batsman's shirt. New Zealand began the day with the intention of batting England out of the match and by the time Stephen Fleming pulled the plug on the innings, the lead had been extended from the overnight 200 to 297.

Having taken charge on Saturday, the chance was there for Craig McMillan and Cairns to cash in. Inside a quarter of an hour Phil Tufnell had been belted twice for six and once for four, and had taken refuge over the wicket and down the legside.

Used defensively it is an unedifying spectacle, but it brought dividends of a kind when Cairns heaved straight to Caddick at deep square leg. The seventh-wicket stand was worth 94.