The CLICHE goes "the bigger the field the bigger the certainty" and confidence is growing that Giant's Causeway will inject the cliche with a lot more credibility in today's Sagitta 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket.
Mind you it would be odd if confidence wasn't dripping from the direction of south Tipperary. Aidan O'Brien's Ballydoyle team dominated Europe's two-year-old races to an unprecedented degree last season and enough of those gauky teenage stars seem to have matured into the real thing. But the crucial word is "seems".
Even when Giant's Causeway was landing the Prix de la Salamandre last season and his stable companion Bernstein, who accompanies Giant's Causeway today, was creating headlines in the summer, the realisation had to be made that European racing's other big guns were keeping their powder dry.
Now those guns are being wheeled out, all 25 of them, and the biggest 2,000 Guineas field in 36 years is set to belt down the Rowley Mile. Bernstein and in particular Giant's Causeway now have nowhere to hide. Juvenile promise counts for nothing when the classic question is posed and at the two furlong pole today, we will find out which of the 27 is the real deal.
No one knows that more than O'Brien and Michael Kinane, who tasted Guineas glory with King Of Kings in 1998 and desolation when Orpen finished last 12 months ago. This weekend, with Amethyst also going in tomorrow's 1,000 Guineas, has been a long time coming but which will Giant's Causeway be? A King Of Kings or an Orpen?
O'Brien, for him, was making reasonably confident noises yesterday even though Giant's Causeway is drawn 17. Not surprising considering the unbeaten Storm Cat colt beat older horses quite comfortably when not fully wound up in the Gladness Stakes.
"He hadn't been asked to do much in his work before the Gladness and the race has brought him on. He's only raced at seven furlongs but he hasn't been stopping in his races and the mile shouldn't be a problem," O'Brien said before downplaying the effects of the draw.
"If I'd the choice I'd ideally go middle to low but most of the good horses seem to be around us so it shouldn't be too much of a problem," he added.
And indeed strung next to Giant's Causeway are the other joint favourites Distant Music (15), Kings Best (12) and Barathea Guest in 10. All of them ran at the Craven meeting here and none of them did anything to leave O'Brien or Kinane, also a Guineas winner on Tirol and Entrepeneur, quaking in their boots.
A new element now is the Godolphin trio of Fath, Zoning and maybe the best outsider Broche but Frankie Dettori's presence in Kentucky shows where Sheikh Mohammed's priorities lie now. The course winner Cape Town can improve again as can Distant Music's stable-mate Race Leader but Bernstein looks as potent an apparent second string as anything else.
"Obviously the big thing is to get him to settle and relax and Olivier Peslier will try and drop him in," predicted O'Brien who just hopes the effects of the draw on a big field won't turn the race into a farce.
"If they split into three groups then the whole thing will be very hard to figure out," he said while doing nothing to dilute hopes that Giant's Causeway will indeed be the real deal.
In contrast, Amethyst is drawn ideally in the number one stall tomorrow although the possibly brilliant Nell Gwyn winner Petrushka is seen as the danger to all.
"She looks the one to beat and there must be a question about our filly staying the mile, but she is in very good form," he said. At the very least, Amethyst looks a worthwhile contender on a weekend that could seal a lot of reputations.
