Chelsea can grind out victory against a team and manager they have repeatedly managed to frustrate, writes Mark Lawrenson, soccer analyst

IN ALEX Ferguson's time in charge at the club very few teams have, consistently, had the upper hand on Manchester United. True, Arsenal and Liverpool, for example, have had their moments, but they've had their fair share of defeats too.

Chelsea, though, have an extraordinary record against United in the Roman Abramovich years, losing just two - if you exclude the Community Shield United won on penalties last August - of 13 league and cup meetings. I have a feeling they will thwart Ferguson once again and extend that record tonight to become European champions.

Ferguson is forever searching for the right balance in games against Chelsea, but so far he's struggled to find it. He can play his preferred system and his attacking football against Arsenal and Liverpool and more often than not that does the job, but against Chelsea he, as most opposition does, always has a problem, largely because of their strength in midfield.

That, then, is what makes choosing the right team for this final a huge challenge for Ferguson. Grant's decisions are really only about personnel - Michael Essien or Paulo Ferreira at right back, Florent Malouda or Salomon Kalou out wide, and so on.

The system will be the same, four at the back, five in midfield and Didier Drogba up front. No change there.

Ferguson, though, has more crucial decisions to make. Does he stick with Cristiano Ronaldo, Wayne Rooney and Carlos Tevez as his attacking front three, and trust that a three-man midfield - Paul Scholes, Michael Carrick and Owen Hargreaves being the most likely choices - will be able to cope with Chelsea in that area? Or does he drop one of the attack, presumably Tevez, and play another midfielder - Park Ji-Sung, Anderson, or even Darren Fletcher - to try and match Chelsea in the centre?

Tempted as he might be to stick with the formation that has been so successful for him this season, I just don't think he can pick that front three. What he has to do is pick a team to win this game, and that's not necessarily his favoured 11.

If United start with Ronaldo, Rooney and Tevez up front, with Scholes pushing up from midfield, then he'll just leave the team very light in the centre. If Chelsea are allowed to boss midfield, as they so often do when they play United, then they'll control the game.

For that reason I wouldn't be surprised if Tevez didn't start tonight. If he does start I hope Rooney won't be asked to play in a midfield role again, as he was away to Barcelona, because it's pointless - all you do is blunt one of the greatest threats you have in your team.

Another issue here, and why I think it's so important Rooney plays through the middle, is any nervousness John Terry might feel about his elbow injury. I dislocated a shoulder three-and-a-half weeks before the Heysel European final (1985) and I lasted three minutes of the game. One knock and it came out. I remember going into the final worrying about it if I got a bang.

Terry has to be feeling the same way. The elbow will just feel delicate. Subconsciously you look after an injury like that and for such a physical player that could take away 50 per cent of his game. The last man he wants to be marking is Rooney, a player just as strong and physical. He would be more than a little relieved if Ferguson played Rooney in a deeper role.

So, yes, Ferguson has some major decisions to make. He has to match Chelsea in midfield if United are to have a chance. Chelsea smother that area with five players, leaving Drogba up front roaming on his own. They strangle the opposition. They're very, very physically strong; the likes of Michael Ballack, Frank Lampard, Essien, Claude Makelele are real athletes.

Ferguson played Park in the games away to Roma and Barcelona and he could go down that route again, leaving Tevez out and Rooney up front. But whatever system he chooses United will always be slightly vulnerable because of the way they play. They never think about closing down games; they just think about looking for another goal - that's the beauty of their football, and why they're so good to watch. But that philosophy can also make them vulnerable, especially against Chelsea. In that sense their greatest strength can be their greatest weakness.

Everybody talks about Ronaldo being the potential match winner for United, and I don't disagree, but I would rather play against Ronaldo in form than Drogba. He's an absolute beast, in the nicest sense of the word. He'll occupy both Nemanja Vidic and Rio Ferdinand. He bullies centre backs and at times can be almost unplayable.

And he's one of the reasons I'm edging towards Chelsea, the foundation of that potential success their midfield, with Drogba doing the damage up front. I've rarely seen Chelsea outplayed in midfield, and I just don't see United coping with that strength. They were awesome in the first leg against Liverpool at Stamford Bridge, and they were awesome again against United in the league.

But I expect it to be a game of attrition, just like the FA Cup final last year, there is no way these teams are going to open up.

United's hopes rest on Ferguson getting that balance right to give his team a chance of matching Chelsea's strength in the middle - and then, maybe, unleashing players from the bench to try and change the course of the game. That's the challenge for him tonight, but I have a feeling Chelsea will do what they usually do: grind down the opposition. And win the Champions League.