Dublin may not survive this time

Analysis: The drawn game a fortnight ago was not only hailed as the best of this year's championship, but was also compared …

Analysis: The drawn game a fortnight ago was not only hailed as the best of this year's championship, but was also compared favourably with that epic All-Ireland semi-final between Dublin and Kerry in 1977 - for those of us old enough to remember.

Dublin are very hard to beat in tight finishes, as they showed against Meath, Wexford and Laois. And even though they didn't win this time they handed Tyrone just what they didn't want - an eighth game in the championship and it still only at the quarter-final stage.

Today's game promises to be another exciting and intriguing one. Whatever about mental tiredness heading into this game, Tyrone in terms of fitness have finished stronger in their last two games, against Monaghan and Dublin.

They were struggling at half-time in both, but changes and tactical switches by Mickey Harte not only eliminated the weaknesses but seemed to give the side new energy and drive.

READ MORE

Conor Gormley went from midfield to the full back line to snuff out Tomás Freeman in the Monaghan game and went to the number-six role in the drawn match to do a similar job on Alan Brogan, and it's no surprise to see him retained in that position.

Ryan McMenamin was crucial to his team's survival the last day with his marking and sweeping, even in the half backs, where he popped up for a while, because when Dublin looked good the weakness that showed in Tyrone was the pressure on the half backs. Gormley's switch helped that but even Philip Jordan had a sticky time.

Other things fell into place for the Ulster team the last day. Seán Cavanagh became a powerhouse in the half forward line in the second half and Owen Mulligan seemed to be shaken from his recent poor form by Peter Canavan's introduction and scored one of the goals of the season.

Brian McGuigan is also improving with every game and looks as if he's been there all year because Tyrone have played so many games. McGuigan is the nearest thing to Tony Hanahoe from the 1970s, pulling all the forwards together but popping up all over the place. So the pieces seem to be coming together for the 2003 All-Ireland champions.

Dublin, however, have matched everything that has been put in front of them this summer so far. They have fine-tuned their team as the year progressed. Jason Sherlock has become indispensable again, just like in 1995.

Paul Griffin did not back off the daunting challenge of marking the in-form Stephen O'Neill. And Stephen O'Shaughnessy is the best debutant defender on any team this year.

Bryan Cullen has proved leadership can be shown at a very early age. He is having a wonderful season, even though he is not playing in his favourite position. His qualities were never better demonstrated than in the closing minutes of the drawn game. Tomás Quinn too, even though at one stage seemingly buckling under the pressure, came good at the end and is the main reason we are relishing the prospect of more of the same.

The big challenge for Paul Caffrey today is to correct some of the weaknesses that showed up in the second half of the drawn game. The central role in proceedings of Ciarán Whelan and Alan Brogan needs to be sustained for longer.

The team in general, as well as Whelan, has a responsibility to sort out midfield.

It was a compliment to Whelan's influence that Harte had to completely rethink his plans in this area. Dublin players have to cover for Whelan to allow him move around and disrupt Tyrone's kick-out strategy.

After the last game Harte was commended for his changes and Caffrey was criticised for not making more. But Dublin couldn't move things around at half-time because things were going so well, while Tyrone had to.

I know from experience that switches can be viewed in different ways. Send on three subs in 10 minutes and that can be a glorious move or a sign of panic.

Still, there were flaws, particularly at the back. Paddy Christie has yet to rediscover his form of a few years ago and the half back line looked vulnerable, especially when Seán Cavanagh moved up there for Tyrone.

Caffrey has resisted making changes in his starting line-up, and while that is understandable, I could see alterations early on if fault lines appear. Contributions from the likes of Darren Magee, Darren Homan (if fit), Peadar Andrews and maybe Bryan Cullen in the half back line could be vital.

All the better games in this year's championship have come from contests where the teams are from different provinces, and we are in for another enthralling episode here.

On balance, I expect Tyrone's ability to shut out games is more likely to surface here than Dublin's propensity to survive in tight finishes. Tyrone to win by three or four points.