This afternoon Dublin enter the twilight zone. After the thumping win over Louth earlier this month the Dubs were on the march, big attendances were massing to fill Croke Park and manager Tommy Lyons was playing the media like a violin. Seán Moran, GAA correspondent, reports.

Less than four weeks later they all find themselves in the remote world of Clones, back yard of Ulster football, facing the real threat of the summer being over before July for the first time in five years. Lyons has retreated into himself, genuinely shocked at the bitterness of the invective heaped on him since losing to Laois.

The team hasn't been named, according to one theory because the management didn't want it being criticised in advance.

This crisis of confidence is mirrored in the supporters who, for whatever reasons, appear likely to travel in far smaller numbers than might have been expected. Ticket sales were running at a sluggish rate up to yesterday and a full house isn't expected.

The horror stories about traffic in Clones have probably deterred a few, and others are off on holidays as the schools broke up yesterday. But most will have noticed that the chilly atmosphere around the team is no longer conducive to perching on the bandwagon.

Truth is that no one really expected Dublin to be headlining the qualifiers quite so early. So the team is on its own - metaphorically if not quite literally.

And it could all end in St Tiernach's Park like the exposition of some potboiler. ("The body was found where? What on earth were they doing there?")

It has been widely asserted that criticism of the team after the Laois match was wild and exaggerated, and it was. But the garlands prematurely strewn around after the defeat of Louth were equally disproportionate. Whether the team over-achieved last year, they are certainly enduring worse luck than they did 12 months ago. And confidence is deteriorating.

Changes will be made for this afternoon. Although Lyons and his selectors are holding their cards close to their chest, David Henry is fairly certain to return in place of Barry Cahill, another of the summer's cruciate victims, at corner back.

There has also been speculation that former captain Coman Goggins will get back in place of Paul Casey, but the latter may get another chance. Darren Magee will be replaced by Darren Homan at centrefield and indications are that Senan Connell and John McNally will come in for Shane Ryan and Liam Ó hÉineacháin.

Dessie Farrell has been flying in training by all accounts and is expected to play a significant role in the match, even if he doesn't start.

Changes in personnel are one thing, but a change of attitude will be equally important. The hesitant finishing, which led to bungled goal attempts and 16 wides, will have to be improved. Homan will add aggression to the centrefield but will have to maintain discipline.

The opposition pairing of Anthony Tohill and Fergal Doherty are quality footballers, but in the Tyrone replay exhibited vulnerability against mobile opponents, and Homan and CiaráWhelan are in a good position to exploit that weakness.

Derry do have a highly regarded defence with a particularly strong full-back line. Seán Martin Lockhart is generally assigned the opposition's most dangerous forward and will probably stay on Alan Brogan.

Derry have been unfortunate in the loss of centre back Kevin McCloy, but Dublin need to raise their game considerably in the half forwards.

It's farther up the field that Derry run out of gas.

The forwards managed two points from play in the replay against Tyrone. The attack has been bedevilled by Paddy Bradley's inconsistency and the uncertainty over where best to position Enda Muldoon.

Geoffrey McGonigle's introduction at full forward is an attempt to lend a sharp edge, and his ball skills and heft will pose a different challenge to Paddy Christie. But a precise supply will be needed; otherwise McGonigle's lack of mobility will be a liability.

The great intangible concerns the morale of both teams. Dublin have been shaken by the reaction to their first bad result in two seasons but should be capable of some kind of bounce.

Derry were flattered by the margin against Wexford in the qualifier and actually trailed by a point despite playing with the wind until just before half-time.

They also appeared quite rattled by the scale of the Tyrone defeat, which triggered an outburst from manager Mickey Moran about referees favouring media teams and Tyrone being "a media team".

Tyrone, meanwhile, were denouncing media coverage of their performance in the drawn match and saying how much it had motivated them.

Given Dublin's experiences over the past fortnight, it's hard to know who gets to be this week's "media team".

Derry have a big advantage in terms of familiarity with the venue, but that's unlikely to be the decisive factor. For all the denunciation, Dublin actually created chances the last day and a bit more precision should yield a bigger total than Derry will manage.