England v Croatia:So England return to the Stadium of Light at their moment of maximum vulnerability. Pleased with themselves, convinced that they are growing into the tournament, busy inflating a new superstar and not worrying enough perhaps about the frailties of a workaday team. They face a Croatian side who are more than a little entitled to feel that they too are growing into the demands of a tough competition.
Having submitted 90 minutes of sheer ordinariness against the Swiss eight days ago, they seemed to have been reassembled with different glue when they faced France last week and only a referee's failure to spot Trezeguet's handball for the French equaliser kept them from a famous victory to put beside those of their predecessors who ran to third in France '98.
That result appears to have galvanised a team derided (via all manner of politically incorrect chanting) by their fans and criticised relentlessly by various of their predecessors in the chequered jersey. Much has been made, both inside Croatia and outside, about the sheer banality of the talents now available when compared with the generation of Prosinecki, Boban, Boksic, Stanic, Jarni and Sukor. It's partly true but England would do well not to listen.
Today the Croats are likely to opt mainly for containment. They'll chop and break the rhythm of the game, niggling the English, encouraging them to believe that they are capable of more than the mere draw they need.
Finally the Croats will launch themselves at them. It's a game they are well equipped for. They set out their stall conservatively with a midfielder lying back very deep and with Bayern Munich's Robert Kovac sweeping and generally picking up the most dangerous attacker. Kovac forced Thierry Henry under water last week. Wayne Rooney could struggle for air today.
Elsewhere, they are robust and experienced. Igor Tudor is a little off colour but is a recognised leader and Josip Simunic, Boris Zivkovic and Stjepan Tomas draw wage cheques from clubs in Italy, Germany or Turkey.
Midfield could be a problem but Darijo Srna's dribbling and dead-ball ability offer options. And up front lies the best, perhaps, of what the modern Croats have to offer. Dado Prso, a late developer at this level, is the team's star and beside him Tomislav Sokota will be playing on the ground where he plays his club football.
Mentally the English have placed themselves in the next round already and whether that relaxes a side who have been cripplingly tentative thus far remains to be seen. Apart from the impudence of Rooney, of which dangerously much has already been made, there hasn't been a lot so far to justify the spirit of self-congratulation. David Beckham and Michael Owen are having poor tournaments, David James is always one howler away form the doghouse and the flat midfield, while looking solid, is not getting the best out of Paul Scholes.
The good news is Steven Gerrard's and Frank Lampard's form in the middle and the thought that Owen remains the type of player who might score three goals on a quiet day. Plus a defence unbreached in open play so far.
All that should be enough to permit England to bungle on.
PROBABLE LINE-UPS
CROATIA: Butina; Simic, R Kovac, Zivkovic, Tudor; Bjelica, Rosso, N Kovac, Rapaic; Prso, Sokota
ENGLAND: James; G Neville, Terry, Campbell, A Cole; Beckham, Lampard, Gerrard, Scholes; Rooney, Owen
Referee: Pierluigi Collina (Italy).
