Leopardstown Preview:It takes a great filly to win the Tattersalls Millions Irish Champion Stakes but Finsceal Beo looks a rare piece of betting value to prove she's up with the greats and deny Dylan Thomas his own piece of history.
No horse has ever twice won Leopardstown's €1 million highlight and no jockey has ever won three-in-a-row so Dylan Thomas and Kieren Fallon have a big stake in justifying some desperately short odds this afternoon.
The Ballydoyle number one leads a three-strong challenge from Aidan O'Brien's yard that also includes Duke Of Marmalade while Red Rocks and Maraahel will try and take Ireland's highest-rated race back to Britain for the first time in five years.
A defence of his Breeders' Cup Turf crown is the ultimate target for Red Rocks whose form indicates a mile and a half is his best trip anyway while Maraahel has had over a dozen tries at landing an elusive Group One and came up short every time.
One of the most prestigious prizes in European racing hardly looks the ideal opportunity to change that pattern.
If you take that view, and that Duke Of Marmalade is held on form by his more illustrious stable companion, then it is possible to boil down the Champion Stakes to Dylan Thomas and Finsceal Beo and there is no doubt where the betting value is in that clash.
Cashmans have consistently made Jim Bolger's dual 1,000 Guineas winner their second favourite all week but their rivals have taken a dramatically different tack. A massive 8 to 1 was available with William Hill yesterday and that looks way too big for a real star performer.
The only fillies to win this race are Stannera (1983), Park Express (1986), Triptych (1987), Indian Skimmer (1988) and Timarida (1996), a list that makes up some of the cream of female racing talent in the last quarter century.
Of them, Park Express was the only one to win at three but it's significant that she was also trained by Bolger and he has resolutely kept this race in mind ever since Finsceal Beo found soft ground too much to overcome at Royal Ascot last June.
Conditions will be much more suitable now and Bolger reported earlier in the week:
"The filly is really as well as she was early in the season, and we're hoping for a big run."
The unknown factor is Finsceal Beo's ability to last a mile and a quarter but her connections are confident she will, and it wouldn't be the greatest surprise if she actually improved for the step up from a mile.
In contrast, Dylan Thomas has always looked best at a mile and a half despite his narrow defeat of Ouija Board in last year's Champion Stakes. He won the Ganay in April but he has been beaten in three subsequent Group One attempts at a mile and a quarter this year.
That's hardly the most encouraging stat for a horse as low in the betting as 1 to 2, and especially one that might be vulnerable to a turn of foot. If they get their timing right, Finsceal Beo and Kevin Manning can prove that.
It's just over 4 to 1 about a Group One "as you were" from 2006 as last year's Coolmore Matron Stakes winner Red Evie is also back for a repeat. However, this looks an ideal opportunity for the luckless Arch Swing to finally get her Group One victory.
There have been valid excuses for John Oxx's filly in four top-flight runs this year but she now has her ground, a decent pace is likely and the draw doesn't come into it. Remarkably Mick Kinane, the most successful Champion Stakes jockey with six wins, is without a ride in the big race this time but Arch Swing can still secure him a Group One success on the big day.
Cougar Bay will relish the fast conditions in the Group Three Star Air Kilternan Stakes while the 2004 winner Empirical Power can follow up in the seven furlong premier handicap.
